Monday 15 June 2020

Common Flaws in Questionnaire Design 101 -- the leading question

Marvellous examples of leading questions in the polls excitedly reported by the GRaun. The survey they cite describes a number of reactions to the Covid crisis,including:

nearly 9 in 10 people (86%) now believing national government has a ‘great deal’ or ‘fair amount’ of responsibility for ensuring people generally stay healthy, significantly up from 61% in 2018....over three-quarters (77%) of British people are concerned about the impact of social distancing on the health and wellbeing of the nation, a figure that rises to 83% among over 65s....two fifths (41%) of people having experienced a negative or significantly negative impact on their income.

But for some reason, el Grud emphasises this: 

Majority of Britons support Brexit transition extension, survey finds


Among the first sample, who were told that the transition period for leaving the EU would end on 31 December, 54% said the government should request an extension, while 40% said it should not.

Then an innocent  nudge provided by 'additional information':

The second sample received additional information on potential delays to the supply of medicines and medicinal products in the event of a no-deal Brexit, and among this sample, the proportion thinking the transition period should extend increased to 65%, with 31% saying it should not extend.

Also
The survey of 1,983 people in Britain found overwhelming public support (95%) for the UK to work closely with the EU in its response to the pandemic....Of those surveyed, almost all who voted remain in the EU referendum (99%) supported working closely with the EU to combat the pandemic, and more than nine in 10 (91%) of those who voted Leave also supported closer collaboration.

We are invited to assume that 'working closely' or 'collaboration'  means extending the transition, of course ,although the split between those who voted different ways suggests that quite different interpretations are likely -- unless all the Leavers have changed their minds altogether.

Just in case ambiguity lingers in the mind of the Graun reader (unlikely I know) , there is a concluding comment to steer us:

The Health Foundation, an independent charity, has previously said a no-deal exit from the EU could cause significant harm to the NHS and social care services....Dr Jennifer Dixon, chief executive of the Health Foundation, said: “As we emerge from the first wave [of infection], health and care services face major challenges in restarting and adapting services...“This winter a no-deal Brexit could exacerbate already acute shortages in the NHS and social care workforce and create new avoidable shortages of medicines and vital supplies.
In her own worst case, and unreported by the Grunni, Dixon also describes the impact of non-Brexit issues:

significant pressures from seasonal flu, supporting people recovering from COVID-19, tackling the large backlog of patients who didn’t receive care during lockdown, and potentially coping with another wave of infection from the coronavirus.

There is no call for analysis and fact-checking this time, evidently, and no insistence that the effects of the virus should be separated from the effects of Brexit, as was the case when Johnson was suspected of confusing the two impacts for his own purposes. All possibilities are mixed together in a worst case, a further example of Project Fear -- even at this late stage.


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