Cultural implications of Brexit re-run to reassure the npb*

R Behr is on the right lines with this, although upside down. If we invert it, his account tells us a lot about new petite bourgeois politics and distancing

Brexit is a machine to generate perpetual grievance. It's doing its job perfectly

The story of plucky Britain standing up to bullying Brussels spares leavers the discomfort of admitting they voted for a con

Euroscepticism is a machine for generating perpetual grievance.

It does indeed have some mileage still as a way of separating out knowledgeable sophisticated petite bourgeois journalists from the still-hated unspeakable plebs and toffs who voted for Brexit. Infuriatingly, Operation(s) Fear might not have actually happened (but see his explanation below), but there is still some superiority to demonstrate

First some fantasy politics to cover his own refusal to analyse how the EC actually works:

The UK still needs things from Brussels, but it has lost the leverage it had from a seat at the EU summit table. This makes it harder for Boris Johnson to play the old double game of public belligerence and private compromise.

Then the explanation for the relative calm. Some of this might be right, I should say

Were it not for the pandemic, loose ends and lost jobs would be making more headlines. Whether they would also be changing public opinion is a different question. Some enthusiasm is surely dropping into the chasm between Brexit as liberation theology and its real-world incarnation as rotting fish undelivered to a Calais market. But British political culture contains deep reserves of stoical resignation to adversity (especially other people’s adversity). There is no simple road back, no better deal on the table, [so no real political point in this article] and it is easy for ministers to spin the pain mandated by their deal as aggression by vengeful Europeans [pretty obvious I would have thought after the Article 16 fiasco] ....plucky Britain standing up to bullying Brussels. It is the story the Eurosceptics used to tell when the UK was an EU member, but more potent because the 27-against-one dynamic that was a paranoid myth has become a fact. Over time, that dynamic will make it ever harder for the opposition to express a pro-European position without inviting the charge of siding with an enemy....

El Graihbn seems to have lost its electoral constituency. That seems to leave only cultural politics then, endless skirmishing about social superiority to claim privilege. Then some Freudian bits where Behr reveals a lot about his own stance while criticising us

They long ago swapped economic argument for culture war bluster....For the true believers, a good Brexit is one that keeps the grievance alive; that makes foreigners the scapegoat for bad government; that continues to indulge the twin national myths of victimhood and heroic defiance. Measured for that purpose, Johnson’s pointless Brexit is perfect.

As this blog among others shows, economic arguments, based on, among others, the myth that the EU subsidised UK policy and was entirely benevolent and growth-led, rapidly gave way to some vague cultural claims of superiority thinly covering the usual class hatreds. Culture war bluster indeed. Brexit was a pretext for rehearsing all those again, bursting out from under liberal coatings in the Guardian and the BBC -- and evidently still there. Their spokespersons are desperately engaged in trying to save face while retaining those old cultural values. They must reassert them. They need constantly renewed targets. Trump has gone. The old issues have to be revived until new ones solidify, Brexit was so good at unifying so many specifics in ways that other petty bourgeois moral panics --gender wars, statue removals -- will find difficult to emulate.

 

Tits and tats #94

The EC is still playing silly buggers:

 Comply with Northern Ireland protocol before expecting changes, EU tells UK

The European commission has ruled out major changes to the Brexit deal’s Northern Ireland protocol, saying it would not even consider any flexibility unless the UK first meets its obligations under the pact in full.... border control posts at ports in Northern Ireland were “not yet fully operational”, while official controls were “currently not being performed in compliance with the withdrawal agreement protocol and EU rules”....Packages were not being monitored as required by the 17 December agreement, he said, goods were entering Northern Ireland “without being declared or without valid certificates”, and the UK had “not yet fulfilled its obligation” to allow EU inspectors real-time access to key UK customs IT systems....Šefčovič said he was “convinced that all of these are teething problems, for which we should be able to find swift solutions”,

Meanwhile, el Grun's view is predictable: 

The Guardian view on the Brexit aftermath: the price of dishonesty

The EU blundered over vaccines and Northern Ireland, but the UK is deep in denial about the deal it has signed

The commission reminds the UK that it has signed a treaty and is bound by its provisions. Buyer’s remorse is not grounds to renege. The UK side insists that Brussels is failing to respect its neighbour and trying to dictate terms instead of conducting a dialogue between equals.

It is hard to overstate how reckless and counterproductive that move was. The article 16 mechanism is meant to be a last resort, not a standard tool in the diplomatic arsenal. By reaching for it so early, Ms von der Leyen squandered moral authority and goodwill on an issue where both are needed to coax the UK into normalisation of the new arrangements....EU officials note that Boris Johnson threatened repudiation of the protocol last year, even before it had been ratified, so the squandering of goodwill started on the UK side. 

 Across the UK, firms and consumers are discovering costs of Brexit that Mr Johnson denied. That denial was born of a failure to understand the trade-off between regulatory autonomy and market access....the greater obstacle is British ministers’ unwillingness to accept that the rules they now find so objectionable are the same ones they so recently cheered as a triumph. Either they failed to understand the deal, or had no intention of keeping their word

Unfortunately, there is something in the Graun's view here. The UK Government did not realise the extent to which the EC could and would introduce spoiling tactics and restrictive practices, at least in the short term, and be as obstructive as possible. It was not clear what they could have done even if they had anticipated the dirty tricks, or what they can threaten in return.Longer term I think lessons will be lerarned but for now they do have the power to make things difficult.

For me, it is part of a wider lesson. The whole struggle has been nastier and more costly than I ever thought. I imagined capital would make things a lot smoother despite the objections of the politicos and bureaucrats, that the balance of powere did not lie with them ultimately. Far too capital-reductive on my part!

The other factor is the old lesson of emergent or unintended consequences, represented by Covid. Imagine the outcry at  job losses and shoortages of Sainsbury's goods had the virus not got there first!

'Ongoing problems' now block gifts

Further knock-ons from the EU threat to invoke Article 16 -- and not before time:

The European Union is expected to ask for more time to ratify the Brexit trade deal, the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator has said as he laid the blame for continuing UK-EU tensions at the door of Brussels.

David Frost claimed that a resolution to now strained relations required a “different spirit” from the EU, in comments made less than 48 hours before a crunch meeting between Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove and a senior European commission figure.

Frost blamed tensions on the bloc struggling to get used to a “genuinely independent actor in its neighbourhood”...He also told the committee that the UK had been told informally that day that the EU would be seeking an extension to the ratification of the trade deal between both sides...“We have heard informally from the commission today that we are likely to get a formal request to extend the two-month period that is in the treaty for ratification on the EU side,” Frost said.

 

Both Gove and Frost were forced to deny that the UK was engaged in a tit for tat struggle with the EU over the recognition of diplomatic representatives after a near-year-long row about the UK’s refusal to grant full diplomatic status of the EU mission to the UK.

A vivid example of the ongoing problems surrounding the Northern Ireland protocol and its impact on movement of goods was put to Gove by Lord Faulkner, who said he had received a letter from a heritage railway in Downpatrick, Northern Ireland.

The railway was due to receive something as a gift from a counterpart in Devon and had approached several delivery firms. Of those who replied, two had said they were not accepting any deliveries between Britain and Northern Ireland any more while another provided a list of requirements.

 

The horror of 68% reductions in exports (cont)

This story was floated in the Observer yesterday (see blog below), and on the same day, seriously questioned by the admirable Briefings for Britain:

For one thing, the article cited compares this January’s exports with the previous January’s: hardly a fair comparison given the COVID effect on the world economy between 2020 and 2021.  It also ignores the fact that EU manufacturers stocked up on British goods in anticipation of disruption last month, and trade has only begun to pick up as they run down their stockpiles.

Moreover, the figure of a 68% decrease is highly questionable: the Road Hauliers’ Association hasn’t explained how it’s come up with it.  It may well represent the month’s lowest point, of a 61% fall in the first few days after Brexit, rather than the complete monthly average of a 29% decrease in traffic.  It’s a particularly cynical ploy because the official trade statistics probably won’t be published until mid-March, by which time the issue will have been safely forgotten.  In all, it’s a regrettable indication of how far Remain-leaning outlets are willing to embrace dubious statistics and sensationalism in order to maintain a (commercially profitable) climate of Brexit hysteria.

The Observer itself included a Government denial as we saw. That continues today in the Graun

A government spokesperson said: “Thanks to the hard work put in by hauliers and traders to get ready for the end of the Brexit transition period, there are no queues at the Short Straits, disruption at the border has so far been minimal and freight movements are now close to normal levels, despite the Covid-19 pandemic.

But there is some 'evidence' to the contrary:

However, the RHA’s figure was corroborated by Richard Ballantyne, the chief executive of the British Ports Association, who said it was “broadly in line” with his experience since new year.

The apparently precise figure of 68% has been reduced to this then!

The Graun reports that some shellfish exporters, some businesses in NI and, inevitably, the SNP are still unhappy, which is fair enough

Boris develops brilliant ideology combining conservatism and Nietzschean mood

Something near to overall balance in the Observer, although the usual imbalance between shouty headline and actual copy: 

Fury at Gove as exports to EU slashed by 68% since Brexit

The volume of exports going through British ports to the EU fell by a staggering 68% last month compared with January last year, mostly as a result of problems caused by Brexit, the Observer can reveal.

The dramatic drop in the volume of traffic carried on ferries and through the Channel tunnel has been reported to Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove by the Road Haulage Association after a survey of its international members. In a letter to Gove dated 1 February, the RHA’s chief executive, Richard Burnett, also told the minister he and his officials had repeatedly warned over several months of problems and called for measures to lessen difficulties – but had been largely ignored.

A government spokesperson said: “We have had intensive engagement with the road haulage industry for many months and are still facilitating a daily call with representative groups.

“We do not recognise the figure provided on exports. Thanks to the hard work of hauliers and traders to prepare for change, disruption at the border has so far been minimal and freight movements are now close to normal levels, despite the Covid-19 pandemic.

“We will continue to work constructively with the RHA as we adjust to our new relationship with the EU and seize the opportunities of Brexit.”

The editorial is even more determined to see the outcome as does the Irish Government/EU as:

the inevitable cost of Brexit. [not new opportunistic nastiness] People have spent their lives painstakingly building up a livelihood, only to find it wiped out almost overnight by a government that has eagerly embraced new barriers to trade. They are existing in a warped reality, where it suits neither the government nor the opposition to acknowledge the gravity of their situation. And so, even as jobs disappear and incomes plummet, there will be little political accountability for the flawed political choices that have brought us here.

Meanwhile,N Cohen has an extraordinary opinion piece developing a lengthy betrayal narrative from an Ulster Unionist perspective combined with told-you-so and serves-you Prods-right-for-rejectjng-May's-deal undertones.It also helps hims revile the Tories generally and Johnson especially, as in the first section:

Duped again: Irish unionists and the long, sorry history of Tory betrayal

English Tories [and probably a lot of voters] would rather accept a united Ireland and independent Scotland than give up on Brexit...Boris Johnson’s wives, mistresses and colleagues all learned he would rat on them in the end

[It is all rooted in] the irrational urge to destroy [beginning with the struggles for Irish independence in the 1920s] ....Tories became sick of caution and respectability....“Move fast and break things” is the authentic slogan of the Conservative party then and now.... In the early 21st as in the early 20th century extreme nationalism worked at the ballot box for the Tories because now, as then, the Nietzschean mood was the spirit of the age....you [Unionists] betrayed the best interests of your cause and country by allowing yourself to become a puppet in the political game to keep the Conservative party in power.

 

That is quite some ideology! An irrational urge to destroy  combined with a game to keep the Conservatives in power. Extreme nationalism and a Nietzschean mood as the spirit of the age.

 

More fun and games in NI as British soil removed from plants

 Graun items today show the dimensions and limits of their views. First:

The Police Service of Northern Ireland’s chief constable has urged people to step back from the brink of violence amid rising tensions over disruption to supplies of goods and food from Britain to the region since Brexit. 

Simon Byrne warned of a “febrile” atmosphere after 26 graffiti incidents were detected across Northern Ireland, and EU and local officials were withdrawn from Brexit check duties at ports in Belfast and Larne following threats.

 As predicted, liberals seem to have forgotten the Loyalists. 

Then a revisit to the latest EU cockup beginning with a rather surprising twist:

The EU’s aborted attempt to trigger article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol could be a blessing in disguise for Northern Ireland....it also concentrated minds and crystallised something that until then had not had the airtime it deserved during Brexit negotiations – the impact the protocol would have on a politically unstable region...

Senior public figures not directly involved in politics in Belfast say the problems are caused by the “rigorous and inflexible” application of the protocol....Why did British soil on plants from English nurseries have to be banned? Why were there questions marks over the right of British troops to transport equipment over the Irish border? Why was a BBC camera crew reportedly stopped on returning to Northern Ireland with camera equipment? Where is the creativity and the flexibility Michel Barnier promised?” asked one source.

I must say I do agree with the last bit though:

[there is]...a strong feeling in Belfast that the EU and the UK gave birth to a Brexit baby and virtually walked away without trying to get public buy-in or mitigate the shock of the new.

 And then the GHRaun editorial

The Guardian view on Northern Ireland and Brexit: stick with the protocol
Mr Johnson claimed the right to breach the 1998 agreement once Brexit was complete, a threat he eventually withdrew. [And my God was a fuss there was -- all that shit about Britain's reputation and all that]  Last month it drew closer again, when the European commission recklessly tried to block the export of Covid vaccines from the EU into the UK, in effect hardening the Irish land border.

 The EU and the Irish government dislike it because they dislike Brexit itself. The UK government dislikes it because it tarnishes the dream of a clean break with Europe. Northern Ireland unionists dislike it because it puts Northern Ireland in a special category, simultaneously part of a state that has left the EU but at the same time the only part of the UK still subject to the EU’s rules on trade and hygiene.

 

 [in particular] ...The DUP has got Brexit wrong from the start. It supported leaving the EU when it should have supported remaining. It failed to adapt to Northern Ireland’s vote to stay in, foolishly overplaying its hand against Theresa May, then finding itself ignored by the opportunist Mr Johnson

But there is always good old Gruan liberalism, now the culture hate campaigns have died down:

A readiness is needed on all sides to solve problems practically.

 

Playing silly buggers with trade

Even the Graun has to report an adverse reaction to the sabre rattling:

 'The best advert for Brexit': European press reacts to EU Covid vaccine row

Continental newspapers give harsh verdicts on the European commission’s actions

A lot of criticism seems to befocused on van der Lyen parfticulalry. The Graun hopes it will blow over, no doubt, and returns to more conventional coverage with examples of the silly things we overlooked in the neogtiations:

Brexit 'teething problems' endemic and could ruin us, say UK businesses

“There is real anger and incredible frustration for people who either import or export that they are simply not able to move stuff. It is just incredibly difficult to get the paperwork right and there have been very low levels of support from government,”

The biggest hit to business is the new rules of origin requirement, which will have a permanent impact on trade. Previously, Brexit goods coming from the EU did not need to be certified as made in Britain or made in the EU to be sold freely within the single market.

But since January the provenance of all goods must be documented...“One port requires every document to be individually stamped. Another wants one stamp on a dozen pages fanned out and is turning people away if they haven’t done it that way,”...EU suppliers were “unprepared” for Brexit and have not been able to supply an audit trail for all goods.

Could any of this be deliberate restrictive practice to punish the UK?  Does anyone now believe otherwise? An Irish spokepserson on the radio this morning declared this was only what we deserved for voting for Brexit.I thought WTO forbade all this stupid stuff?

 One more example

Eight days for carrots to get to Belfast with complex Brexit checks

[a mixed lorry load] must be accompanied by a litany of documents and certificates before the trailer can be cleared to board the ferry at Birkenhead....struggling with the documentation requiring it to supply what is known as an “inco term”, which determines who pays the duty in any tariff but also establishes a specific record as to who is the importer...Then there was also the supplier who had provided a commodity code that was two digits short. A simple key stroke mistake could be difference between the lorry getting the red or the green light for entry to NI....entire lorry loads are at risk if one supplier gets one item wrong....two lorries delayed in Dublin because of the words “drumsticks” and “eggs” appeared in the paperwork. They were given the all clear after it was clarified that the drumsticks were not chicken but Swizzels sweets and the eggs were Cadbury’s Creme Eggs.

“It’s absolutely criminal what has been allowed to happen between these two islands that have traded with each other for so long,”