The horror of 68% reductions in exports (cont)

This story was floated in the Observer yesterday (see blog below), and on the same day, seriously questioned by the admirable Briefings for Britain:

For one thing, the article cited compares this January’s exports with the previous January’s: hardly a fair comparison given the COVID effect on the world economy between 2020 and 2021.  It also ignores the fact that EU manufacturers stocked up on British goods in anticipation of disruption last month, and trade has only begun to pick up as they run down their stockpiles.

Moreover, the figure of a 68% decrease is highly questionable: the Road Hauliers’ Association hasn’t explained how it’s come up with it.  It may well represent the month’s lowest point, of a 61% fall in the first few days after Brexit, rather than the complete monthly average of a 29% decrease in traffic.  It’s a particularly cynical ploy because the official trade statistics probably won’t be published until mid-March, by which time the issue will have been safely forgotten.  In all, it’s a regrettable indication of how far Remain-leaning outlets are willing to embrace dubious statistics and sensationalism in order to maintain a (commercially profitable) climate of Brexit hysteria.

The Observer itself included a Government denial as we saw. That continues today in the Graun

A government spokesperson said: “Thanks to the hard work put in by hauliers and traders to get ready for the end of the Brexit transition period, there are no queues at the Short Straits, disruption at the border has so far been minimal and freight movements are now close to normal levels, despite the Covid-19 pandemic.

But there is some 'evidence' to the contrary:

However, the RHA’s figure was corroborated by Richard Ballantyne, the chief executive of the British Ports Association, who said it was “broadly in line” with his experience since new year.

The apparently precise figure of 68% has been reduced to this then!

The Graun reports that some shellfish exporters, some businesses in NI and, inevitably, the SNP are still unhappy, which is fair enough