H Rifkind in yesterday's Times (subscription barrier) picks up the issue that Brexit somehow encouraged Russia to see 'the West' as weak and thus to risk invading Ukraine. This is now pretty much accepted among Remainers, so it is slightly surprising to see a few doubts with Rifkind a self-confessed 'bitter remainer'
He starts by pointing out the weakness of the analogy between the fight for Brexit and the fight for Ukrainian independence as everybody has (including Johnson who suggested it in the first place in a silly moment). The article also has a reader poll where you can vote whether Brexit has made 'the West weaker' -- when I saw it , 71% of 819 said yes, but ,as usual, quite what they mean was not exactly clear,
Apparently, Cameron had once (2014?) said Brexit would make the West weak and encourage Russia but Johnson had said that 'EU muscularity' was the problem, 'pre-echoing' Putin's language says Rifkind. And several other people, of course. Farage and Banks are cited as pro-Putin and pro-Russian . All of these refer to Russia's takeover of Crimea and bits of Ukraine in 2014.
Rifkind suspects Russia of an unnamed hybrid information campaign in British politics and slyly implies Brexit interference -- but 'my view has always been "probably a bit"'.He also suspects some of the admiration for Putin might be 'homoerotic'. He does think Brexit served Russian interests in some unspecified ways and quotes an Estonian spokeserson in support. Putin opposed a second referendum, apparently (so did lots of Brits, of course).
However, Rifkind points out that another possible Brexit scenario might have seen the UK more closely allied to a liberal USA and NATO, and Putin could not have ruled that out at the time. As for Brexit making the West weaker -- at least the Ukrainians are grateful for our military aid.
Most astonishing of all Rifkind thinks Johnson might succeed after all in forming some sort of solidaristic response to the Russian invasion!
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