Border chaos blamed on Brexit

Chickens have come home to roost with the hoo-hah about the Irish border which has been so important an issue -- because no-one want a return to the Troubles, of course, nothing to do with trouble-making or punishing theUK.

The UK Government has announced that there will simply be no tariffs on goods coming from the Republic into Norther Ireland. This had an interesting reaction when it was announced with the Republic's spokesperson saying this would require all parties to discuss what to do about the border. Now they can discuss it. Before it was inviolate, of course.

More today in teh Grauniad, slanted in the usual way:

Post-Brexit tariffs will ‘wipe out businesses’ near Irish border 

But who will be imposing these tariffs? 

The UK government’s decision not to apply tariffs on imports from the republic in the event of no deal is an existential threat, they fear, since Ireland, as an EU member, will be obliged to impose steep duties on goods from outside the single market. That differential could wipe out farms and manufacturers facing tariffs when they export to Ireland and unable to compete with tariff-free goods entering from Ireland...“It’s been an awful shock to businesses to comprehend what the policy will do to us,” said Declan Billington, the head of the Northern Ireland Food and Drink Association. “We’ll be facing tariffs exporting to Ireland which could well be 30% to 40% on beef, but beef from the south will come in with zero tariffs... “It will be a disaster if they bring in tariffs one way but not the other,” the 56-year-old farmer said. “The whole country will be at a standstill. There should be free trade. People don’t understand the border.”

There is also a fear of 'industrial-scale smuggling worse than the illegal, paramilitary-backed cross-border trade at the height of the Troubles'

So -- principled opposition to a hard border will be replaced by standard EU tariffs after all. This might well hurt Irish producers. We are not to blame the gung-ho arrogance of the Irish and their EU allies that kept holding up the border as an insoluble issue, however, but the UK Government who has done the obvious thing.

Will any of this lead to what the UK has been asking for -- a custom post-free electronic border and thus no need for a backstop? Do the Irish and the EU want to discuss this now or after Brexit?

The whole Guardian issue is positively awash with scare stories and fears:

'It could be terrible for us': how one British high street is preparing for Brexit 

(This is a story  about a specialist high street in York. There are the usual elements -- fears for the supply of charcoal, just-in-time flower stockists who can't work a day in advance, fears for medicines. The closing of shops is noted, as if that were not happening everywhere, thanks to Amazon. There is only one reservation, tucked well down amidst the list of fears: 'Whether this is because of Brexit is impossible to know'.

Of course, we must not ignore other victims:

Exit Brussels? The UK civil servants under a fog of uncertainty

and this

‘A riskier place to go’: academics avoid conferences in Brexit Britain

Not just plebs -- toffs are also to blame

The Graun renews its attack on those above as well as those below in its classic petit-bourgeois class politics with this:

Britain’s Brexit crisis is rooted in the power of our public schools

[the ERG is a] 90-strong band of ideologues...Jacob Rees-Mogg. This one-man embodiment of the mess into which we have all been dragged...Where did he come from, this human museum piece?...[His dad William was an Editor of the Times but] the roots of the Rees-Mogg family wealth [are]  in the ownership of coalmines in Somerset....places replete with the ghosts of a lost industrial past and the consequences of the austerity that he has enthusiastically endorsed....His apparent skill in matters of high finance – which, according to a recent edition of Channel 4’s Dispatches, has earned him an estimated £7m since the referendum, assisted by the fall in the value of the pound – goes back to childhood dealing of stocks and shares, and time spent in Hong Kong and the City....

But above all, Rees-Mogg is an old Etonian. Let's discuss the role of this school calmly and rationally:

Eton College. This institution sits at the heart of the Brexit mess and the dismal political failings that led to it. What comes to mind at the mention of Eton? Tailcoats? The eternally mysterious wall game? Or the angry lament contained in the Jam’s Eton Rifles, with its Larkin-esque opening line: “Sup up your beer, and collect your fags / There’s a row going on, down near Slough”, that lyrical portrait of a working class serially defeated by privilege...Eton chiefly symbolises the unbroken English link between private education and power. [For evidence? ] To quote one old boy, who did his time in the 1980s: “Kids arrived there with this extraordinary sense that they knew they were going to run the country.”

Etonians and the alumni of other “top” private schools are still at the core of British rightwing politics. Their fingerprints are all over Brexit. David Cameron was deluded enough to call the referendum in the first place, blithely ignoring the possibility that the cruelties of his austerity programme would inform the public’s response....Thanks to his brazen embrace of a cause he thought would smooth his passage to the Tory leadership, Cameron’s Eton contemporary Boris Johnson led the push to exit the EU

There are books to push as well though:

It is no accident [!!] that, as the scale of the Brexit disaster has grown, two high-profile books – David Kynaston and Francis Green’s Engines of Privilege, and Robert Verkaik’s Posh Boys – have been published tracing the history of so-called public schools and their domination of our power structures.

Generalising a bit, perhaps for 'balance' and perhaps because the upper class enemy is everywhere:

The past three years of British history have proved that privilege often breeds a dangerous mixture of ineptitude and arrogance, as well as incubating the kind of unhinged ideas that could appeal only to people removed from ordinary life, who tend to see the world in terms of crass abstractions. This, incidentally, is something proved by any number of posh revolutionaries, and is evident on the modern political left as well as the right....Brexit should focus minds on how we begin to cut the ties that bind the state, politics and key professions – including journalism – to a tiny number of schools.

However, as we might expect from liberals and their petit-bourgeois clientele:

There is no need to abolish private education. [Heaven forbid! That would make the housing market even more important in picking 'good' state schools]  The simplest solution might prompt outrage, but would be no more drastic than Brexit itself. As well as an end to private schools’ charitable status, it should be demanded, via legislation, that over the next 10 years or so Russell Group universities [so that is the beef?] allocate their places in line with the balance between private and state schools in the population at large, so that 93% of their students are eventually state-educated.

Anticipating some mild protest from his pubic school colleagues as well as from Graun readers?

obviously, it is more than possible to go to Eton, or Harrow, or any number of other fee-paying schools, and emerge as humble, sensitive and self-aware as anyone else. I have also met people profoundly damaged by the experience of private school, even when everything has gone to plan.

Finally, according to Google, J. Harris (the author) was educated at Loreto College and  The Queen's College, Oxford

Now it's house asking prices -- Britain unravels

Shock news from the Guardian today,leading with the stuff that will really unsettle its readers. Say what you like about the price of strawberries, the soggy tomatoes in BLTs or the late delivery of Amazon items --this is the killer

Brexit fears dampen spring property revival as asking prices fall 

In a story that will cause consternation, the Guardnida tells us:

Brexit anxiety has all but killed the traditional spring property revival, pushing down asking prices across the UK by 0.8% in the year to March, according to property website Rightmove...Inner London saw the sharpest falls, followed by boroughs across the rest of the capital and surrounding counties...In the last year London prices have fallen 3.8%. Across the south-east prices are 1.5% down on this time last year.

It really is a worry. That huge fall in asking prices (my emphasis).  All down to Brexit of course. Said a Rightmove spokesperson:

"As the clock ticks down towards the Brexit deadline it is natural human behaviour for more buyers to hesitate."

We are on to buyer hesitation now,not asking prices. 

Strangely, though:

Outside the south-east, the only region to record a monthly fall during February was the north-east, where asking prices fell 1.3%....In the north-west, prices rose 2.5% last month and were 3.4% higher than a year ago, Shipside said.

Luckily, the Graun has some supplementary textual shifters to put things back on track: 

The British Chambers of Commerce said Brexit uncertainty was continuing to dampen economic activity as it downgraded GDP growth to 1.2% in 2019, matching the Bank of England and the Treasury’s independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility. If realised, this would be the weakest growth since the financial crisis a decade ago... a separate report by accountants and business advisors BDO concluded that UK export growth fell “perilously close” to the point of contraction in the first quarter of 2019.

Blame spreads -- to Trump

This today from the Guran's N Nougayrede:

A chaotic Brexit is part of Trump’s grand plan for Europe

The Brexit saga isn’t just about a negotiation gone awry, nor about the impasse a country finds itself in having fallen prey to a movement based on lies and deception. The wider question is about what kind of world we want to live in...Trump’s US is intimately intertwined with the Brexiter vision of Britain...first, the pro-Trump crowd still sees Brexit as an essential step towards the unravelling of the EU, an entity that, writes Grygiel, “has outlived its purpose as an ordering force in Europe”...Brexit, then, is seen as helpful in depriving Europe of any leverage to act (whether on the climate crisis or on multilateralism at large) in ways that might contradict a specific, narrow understanding of US national interests.

Then, as initially suggested or imaginary similarities become hard actual links:

If Brexit isn’t somehow stopped, the Trumpian-Brexiteer axis [my emphasis] will come to determine much of what unfolds in our part of the world.

F Ryan extends the discussion to appeal to Guardina readers on a more personally relevant tack. There might be too much critical politics for them, but they have a nice symbolic target to aim at -- Brexit:

Austerity created this mental-health crisis. Brexit has sent it into overdrive 

More than four in 10 people say that Brexit has impacted on their mental health in the past two years; hardly surprising considering 44% of respondents to the YouGov survey believed EU withdrawal will worsen their lives. Some EU nationals living in the UK have even reported feeling suicidal as uncertainty about their future steps up.

It may be true that:

nine out of 10 NHS mental health trusts bosses in England said they believe benefit changes in recent years have increased the number of people with anxiety, depression and other damaging conditions.

But: 

It is quite the irony behind Theresa May’s self-styled mental health revolution that her own government is having a hand in an ongoing psychological crisis.

Nothing to do with the scaremongering Remoaners of course.

There is a bit of insight:

The conditions in which we live – our homes, family, jobs, income – are shaped by the decisions made by politicians. This is particularly true if you’re poor, disabled, an immigrant, or a woman and therefore more likely to be at the mercy of state support – and to take the biggest hit from Brexit-type economic shocks [which are assumed as an extra decisive factor] ...A climate of growing economic hardship, from slow wage growth to the rise in private renting, coupled with a decade of far-reaching government cuts like the bedroom tax, disability tests, and tax credits, have all too predictably exacerbated this.... this is happening against a backdrop of buckling mental health budgets

 

Blame game starts

May lost the vote again and nice people are very cross and panicky. One aspect has been to begin to lay down the bases for a new PV campaign. An early issue is -- who was to blame for the fiasco?

P Toynbee weighs in:

The prime minister got one thing right: we can’t blame the EU for this 

The revolutionary Brexit Conservatives have brought down their own party and in effect their government. Tory extremists who voted down the prime minister’s deal while yearning for their utterly unobtainable “clean break” have lost control too: the one certainty is this parliament of chaos will ensure Britain does not leave the EU with no deal...At least May spelled out one useful warning [after being slagged off as ineffective and hopeless]... when everything collapses around their ears, when Brexit proves a calamity, “It will be no good blaming the EU, responsibility would lie with this House.” And so it would – unless this House can pull back, revoke article 50 with a confirmatory public vote, and try to dismiss this whole desperate episode as a brief strange nightmare that history should forget.... Jeremy Corbyn in his 25-minute speech today made not one reference, not one, to the second referendum his party overwhelmingly desires? So much for his lifetime of preaching the supremacy of party members’ views. Nonethless, Labour will not be to blame: the Brexit nightmare is all Tory....There is no solution but to ask the people...[especially as].... Remain stands 8-10% ahead in the polls. 

Toynbee evidently belongs to the old school of grief management, before therapy:

The only way now is to stay in the EU, and forget all this ever happened....God help us all.

Meanwhile, the Graun does at least carry (not very prominently but it is there) an alternative proposal advanced by some Brexiteers including O Paterson:

It has come to be called the “Malthouse Plan B”. In this scenario, both the EU and UK agree to minimise any disruption, ensuring that trade continues without the withdrawal agreement. The government has already put in place such measures and MEPs have voted on a number of “mini-deals”, including an arrangement for British car certifications to continue, permission for the EU to sell the UK their goods as a third country, an aviation deal to allow flights to continue and a road haulage deal....We need to remember, also, that no deal on 30 March is not an end state. Under article 24 of the WTO’s general agreement on tariffs and trade, so long as the UK and EU agree to a free trade agreement (FTA) and notify the WTO of a sufficiently detailed plan and schedule for the FTA as soon as possible, we could even maintain our current zero-tariff, zero-quantitative restrictions arrangements, while the new deal was being negotiated.

EC = Europe' (again)

El Guranido seems a bit quiet on the day of the Great Second Meaningful Vote,although they must have a slight stirring of hope if the May Deal is defeated, as they predict. Because the next step will be to oppose exiting 'with no deal' on 29th, then asking for an extension. Hardly anyone thinks the EC 'concessions' on the Irish border will convince many people.

Meanwhile, it seems that 'students' are mobilising to attend a march pressing for a second vote. Interestingly, a student group has also been formed to support Brexit, unnoticed by the Remainer press:

As a student myself, I have witnessed first hand the astonishing bias against Brexit from lecturers. Indeed, universities themselves actively push for a second referendum. Lecturers have terrified and bewildered their students into staying silent on the Brexit debate. This remarkable breach of trust to remain impartial has resulted in a generation of students who are stuck in a rut of chronic self-doubt about their own beliefs.

An anonymous piece in the Times told how hard it was to be a Brexiteer in the Civil Service, whose hostility seemes to be based on the usual distancing contempt for ignorant Leavers:

Most horrifying, however, is the sheer disdain and utter contempt that my colleagues display towards people who voted to leave....I live in fear that my colleagues will discover through a slip of my tongue that I am a Brexiteer. Were this to happen, I genuinely believe that most would refuse to talk to me again and that I might even lose my job... I have witnessed first-hand civil servants doing everything within their power, subtly and under the surface, to frustrate Brexit and talk it down at every opportunity...scaremongering, created and whipped up by civil servants, is having a marked impact on the confidence and wellbeing of ordinary citizens...

Student marchers give some reasons for wanting to stay in 'Europe':

“For lots of young people Brexit was a watershed moment. They have been politicised by it. This is a fight based on values and how we want our country to be.”...“Young people are showing what can happen when they raise their voices.”...students on [one] campus are particularly concerned about European students having to pay much higher fees and uncertainty over visas. Others are panicking about whether they will be able to obtain vital medicines if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal...“Most of the undergraduates here didn’t vote in the referendum. There is this sense that this huge shift is happening that will affect their futures and they haven’t had a say.”...“Last time I couldn’t vote and it is so frustrating having to stomach this mess,” ... “My tutor asked me recently what I wanted to do after university, and I said ‘How can I possibly plan?’ So much of what I want to do involves other EU countries.” [She is a student in War Studies at KCL!]

Brexit anxiety vol 94

Further signs of tension as the date approaches. I hope Remainers manage to hang on. This Guardian article has:

Brexit and bad weather puts UK farmers at risk of suicide, say charities 

OK, Brexit is first on the list for the Gruan of course:

Brexit had created a “ticking timebomb” in the farming community.

[A spokesperson] said: “These are unprecedented times. The farming community is facing a perfect storm, and greater emotional support is going to be needed. Without a Brexit deal, sheep producers have no idea whether they will be able to export this season’s lambs beyond 29 March....with the uncertainty over Brexit we really do fear for the mental state of some of our farmers.

but the article is more modulated as well:

...farmers were still struggling with the impact of the “beast from the east” snowstorms last year and the summer drought....“Whichever way Brexit goes, farmers are facing a £25-30 a head loss on this year’s lambs. It is going to be absolutely dire"...livestock farmers, in particular, were struggling to cope with winter feed bills and the additional cost of housing livestock.

Deepening uncertainty is the main goal of the Remainers, now, of course. The egregious G Miller,says M d'Ancona the Guardian:

... is now, I gather, seeking to reframe the way in which Westminster and Brussels contemplate the possibility of its extension. Armed with a legal opinion written by Kieron Beal QC and three other senior lawyers, the co-founder of the pro-remain campaign Lead Not Leave will argue that the EU council of ministers could itself, unilaterally, extend the article 50 deadline.

Apparently:

the EU has a legal duty to all its member states to ensure that any such withdrawal is not damaging to what article 13(1) of the treaty on European Union calls the “consistency, effectiveness and continuity of its policies and actions”, or to the principle spelled out in article 13(2): “Pursuant to the principle of sincere cooperation the EU and the member states shall, in full mutual respect, assist each other in carrying out the tasks which flow from the treaties.”...she hopes to remind the EU that the legal, practical and moral obligation to prevent a catastrophic no-deal outcome is not confined to Westminster. 

That might not work, of course, but there is Plan B (C?D?E?)

it is also feasible that – looking over the cliff edge – parliament will decide only to do so on the basis of the proposal put forward by the Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson: namely that the Commons backs the agreement, but then puts it to a public vote...It is an organic idea, rather than a static mechanism, and one that will only gain traction as the last resort of the truly patriotic [sic] – the choice of political maturity over populist madness [ie class distinction?].

D'Ancona hopes the two issues will come together -- so the EC agrees to an extension only if there is a promise of another referendum?

Any prolongation that does not allow time for serious debate from first principles or is not long enough for a public vote – nine months at a minimum – will be no more than a shabby exercise in political theatre.

As usual, I am amazed at what on earth drives these people to such lengths. What better would indicate the worst fears of the EU as Hotel California and show the limits of Parliamentary sovereignty? Fuck principles --let's do realpolitik