Garton in Ashes

Another Guardina piece from T Garton-Ash on the recent events. Same strange contradictions as before. Still no clear view about why he likes the EU so much.

So: 

there is now a serious chance of the British voting in a second referendum to stay in the European Union. What an extraordinary boost that would be to the whole post-1945 project of building a better Europe!

However, what if it all goes wrong?

in the long term Brexit would create a festering British ulcer, hurting and weakening the body of the European Union...The ulceration would begin soon after B-day. Britain would then have to negotiate its actual future relationship with the EU, on the basis of a vague and non-binding political declaration, and from an exceptionally weak negotiating position. Those negotiations would take years, and be very difficult. [So the May deal is crap?]  The false promises of the Brexiteers would soon be exposed. To avoid taking the blame themselves, the Brexiteers and Britain’s Eurosceptic press (no sticklers for truth, to put it mildly) would blame the country’s misfortunes on “the Europeans”, and especially on the French – something the English have been practising for 700 years....it is a dangerous illusion to believe that Britain would go on happily, constructively cooperating with the rest of Europe on foreign policy, defence, counter-terrorism (one thinks of the latest victims in Strasbourg) and intelligence-sharing and all the other areas in which the UK substantially contributes to Europe, while being mired in unhappiness about the rest of the relationship. That’s not how politics works, especially in an age of populism. It is also a delusion to think that within a few years the British would come back, with their tails between their legs, begging to rejoin. That’s a serious misreading of the British character. In short, there would be a dynamic of divergence, not of convergence.

I love it when Remainers sound off about 'the British character'. So how is all this going to lead to a new Remain vote?

the mother of parliaments [more dodgy history!]  is now taking back control [not from the EC though?] . Nobody knows what will emerge from its often arcane and operatic procedures. A new election? A government of national unity? A vote for Norway plus (British membership in the EFTA pillar of the EEA, plus a customs union)? No deal by accident rather than design? Anything is possible...[One possibility comes from] The ruling this week of the European court of justice establishes that, following a vote to remain, the UK could unilaterally revoke article 50 and stay as a member of the EU on its current terms.

It night even be bad news for remainers: 

Of course we might lose the referendum vote again. Even then, the country would be in no worse a position than it is now, and arguably in a better one: no one could then argue that people did not know what they were voting for...It is ridiculous to suggest it would be undemocratic for Britain’s sovereign parliament to take the question back to the people. The resulting referendum campaign could be angry and divisive. But one has to weigh that short-term risk against the much larger long-term risks to both Britain and Europe.

Repetition of the claim that Britain is sovereign, and a long silence about whether the EU restricts that sovereignty at all. A meek promise to shut up if it went against them again -- there would be more allegations about lies and racism, more personal abuse of Leavers, more cries of foul, demands for a third referendum or authoritarian solutions to dissolve the people and impose a new GNU?

What would be the positive case?

What is certainly true is that, to ensure a Britain that constructively re-engages, helping to bring the EU the reforms it badly needs, we need to achieve a decisive margin for staying in. Recent opinion polls are pointing in that direction, but we must make a much better pro-European campaign than we had in 2016.

So what would clinch it? Garton Ash appeals not to the British electorate, but to 'the EU' (Juncker?) itself to help out by insisting Britain is welcome.I don't think he is asking for any actual concessions on the deal, of course:

Article 50 would have to be extended for a few months..[and there is a tricky issue to address] around British participation in the European elections in May [should be a good one -- would we still be in or out by then? If in, and we elected lots of Leaver MEPs, they could cause trouble] 

More desperately, to end...

If you are persuaded that building a stronger Europe in a dangerous world needs the UK to be pulling its weight inside the EU; if you regard any blow struck against the dark forces of nationalist populism as a good thing; if what the UK has contributed to Europe over the centuries means anything to you; if you place any value on what Britain did for European freedom in the second world war, for postwar reconstruction and for helping to throw off the yoke of communist dictatorships; then let us have this chance. If you have worked with British colleagues, spent time at a British university, enjoyed some aspect of British sport or culture, or have British friends; if anything the British have ever done has touched your heart [as if EC bureaucrats have a heart!] ; then give us your solidarity and support. In helping Britain you will also be helping Europe.