Friday 22 July 2016

More shock and horror -- from the PMI

Just after the first item (the shootings in Munich) and before the report on Trump accepting the Republican nomination, ITV news announced that after the fall in the pound and the Stock Exchange,  there was now more clear evidence to support the fears that Brexit would damage the UK economy. The Purchase Managers Index (no, me neither) had fallen below 50 for the first time since the financial crash!! The Index closely shadows GDP,  apparently, so it is now possible to predict a fall in 0.4% of GDP. The Chancellor has said he would have to do something about it, said the report.

OK, after the shock, a couple of qualifications appeared.The Index was based on a survey of companies in the first week after Brexit, when things were pretty unstable. ITV News admitted this. Second, the Chancellor had actually said he would not do anything about it at the moment but would wait and see and issue any necessary fiscal tweaks in November during the Autumn Statement. ITV glossed this as the Chancellor saying he would act, and left out all the conditionals.

No doubt again the text was suitably 'balanced' or at least did not tell any actual porkies -- but the headlines screamed  and the small print whispered.

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