We don’t have any inside information. [So we will regurgitate the old cliches peddled by others already] We’re not privy to material that others do not have. But we do have a team of scholars [!] who have spent their careers studying the relationship between the UK and the EU, and so are well placed to consider the potential implications if the UK were to leave in this manner...
No deal means a cliff edge; the full panoply of checks and tariffs will be imposed on our exports to the EU, and cross-border trade in services will face new restrictions....But beyond these direct impacts, much is uncertain [indeed]...
the EU has unilaterally put into place temporary workarounds. Would these – some of which expire as soon as the end of December, just two months into no deal – survive a political confrontation over the UK’s “divorce bill”?[ why should they not -- Did the EU put them in place for purely sentimental reasons?]... the government’s recent incoherence on what no deal means for freedom of movement has made many feel, understandably, insecure – and it is still unclear how employers, landlords and public services will be expected to apply any new rules. The position for Britons in Europe is even more complex and uncertain....the UK will immediately lose access to EU databases and other forms of cooperation including the European arrest warrant, the Schengen information system and Europol....
But perhaps the biggest and most dangerous unknown is what happens on the island of Ireland. The UK government has said it will not apply checks and tariffs at the Irish border – a stance which is at odds with its commitments under, inter alia, WTO rules. The EU, however, has made it clear it intends to apply the rules, though whether all checks will be imposed from day one is less obvious....we are likely to see mounting tensions in Northern Ireland, and quite possibly the return of direct rule.
Over the longer term, the economy will adjust. But there will be a significant cost.
What assumptions lurk in these predictions, which are pretty cautious anyway? If there is a cost, how does that compare to the costs of staying in? Is it worth it anyway?
P Toynbee returns with comments on the latest twist in the game of bluff and counterbluff, due to resolve itself today. Toynbee's intervention is Churchillian [not] ?
Here comes a rare moment with a vote on a nation-changing question of such gravity that it takes their beliefs beyond the reach of whips...MPs have this one moment – no prevaricating, no side-stepping – because there will not be another day. Organisers of the attempt to force a Brexit delay calculate that there will be no time after MPs return on 14 October. This is it. Now or never....Should they be ready to sacrifice everything on Tuesday, only for an election to be called nullifying their gesture: deselected instantly, ejected for ever for one cavalier vote that led to nothing? The answer is yes.Defy this gang of ne’er-do-wells who dare evict Philip Hammond, their recent chancellor, [never knew Toynbee was a fan] and many distinguished others including Ken Clarke [we mustn't disturb distinguished men --where would it end?].
Tory MPs are staring down the barrel of the Johnson bazooka [I hope this is not a freudian slip] – back his no deal or you’re out. Losing the whip, being ejected from their party and deselected from their seats will be a bitter end, but this one act of defiance will count for more than anything else they do....Breathtaking is the notion that the government might ignore such a law: Michael Gove refused five times to rule it out on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show [not exactly the same as ignoring the law then] ....The response, it seems, is to threaten an election....[so not disobeying the law then]...These lawless wild men [who suggest elections, the desperadoes]...
Labour seems to have been outmanoeuvred rather easily:
But to get the necessary two-thirds vote in the Commons for an election, he needs Labour’s backing. Jeremy Corbyn started today saying “any time”, bring it on. Fortunately that was later qualified: not if an election is used to block the Brexit delay....[so not then]...Consider this craziness: as Starmer, one of Labour’s heaviest hitters, fights in parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit, his local party (also mine) is holding ward meetings to decide whether to reselect him. Corbyn should tell the NEC, the party’s ruling body, to suspend all reselections immediately with the country in crisis and an election imminent [Breathtaking that Corbyn has not ruled out using his leader's powers to stop a democratic process involving members]
Meanwhile, some world news:
Swooping magpie shot by Sydney council after 'particularly aggressive' attacks
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