Saturday 17 October 2020

Bewigged men fight over can of hairspray

Latest on the silly games characterising the endgame in the Graun.

So the prime minister has spoken. And as a result, we have a standoff. While Boris Johnson demanded a “fundamental change of approach” from the EU, the 27 heads of state and government, for their part, on Friday called on the UK “to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible”.

What is clear is that a deal is not a matter of one side blinking first. Both will have to make concessions. The precise nature of such concessions will be a matter for the negotiators, but it is not beyond the wit of man to come up with solutions that ensure appropriate standards in the UK and prevent excessive subsidies, without the need for London to be explicitly bound by EU law and under the authority of the EU’s court.

The last one would be a major concession by the EC, of course, unless it is a hint of more KitKat turning on what might be meant by 'explicit' I should think even this Government  is now thoroughly alert to Continental wiliness after claims that control over the seas did not mean ownership of the fish or that the EC had the right to disrate UK exports to NI.

Wonderful glosses here:

Certainly, the difference between a deal and a no-deal outcome is smaller now than it has been in the past. The withdrawal agreement signed last year resolves a number of the issues outstanding from UK membership, as well as the fraught question of the Irish border. And the trade deal being sought by the British government is significantly thinner than that negotiated by the previous incumbent of No 10.

What this means is the UK is better prepared for a no-deal and Covid-19 has changed the whole picture, reducing economic activity anyway, and maybe giving Johnsons some camouflage for any State intervention.The withdrawal agreement has actually been modifed by the recent controversial bill which has invalidated a major EC playing card. The trade deal is thinner because a lot of the stuff about EC regulations and internal markets has been junked. Incidentally, I assume no deal also means no hefty payment to the EU -- agreed it will be peanuts compared to the cost of Covid.

On which...

Even if [a deal] were signed, modelling by Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics suggests that the negative economic impact will, over time, be larger than that of the pandemic. Whatever the outcome of the next few weeks, Brexit will continue to cast a shadow over what the prime minister has said will be a “year of recovery and renewal”.

We can trust those forecasts 'over time', of course, as Covid also shows.

The author of the article,  'Anand Menon is director of The UK in a Changing Europe', so maybe big changes on the horizon for him next year?


 

Tuesday 13 October 2020

Fleet Street attack dog tries to walk away quietly

Let's start with this from The Sunday Times.

SCL, which later became Cambridge Analytica, was taken on by the Ted Cruz presidential primary campaign. When that fizzled out, Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign employed Alexander Nix and his minions, convinced that they could use their avant-garde psychological insights and scraped Facebook data to aid their electoral mission.

“Lots of people bought it,” the Republican political consultant Luke Thompson lamented to me last week. “We Americans have an awful postcolonial tic where we believe any nonsense a British person in a well-cut suit says to us.”

The rest has become accepted history. Cambridge Analytica, funded by the secretive hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer, led by the populist Svengali Steve Bannon and fronted by the oleaginous Nix, used its nefarious tactics to help swing the Brexit and Trump votes. This previously unknown firm changed Anglo-American democracy for ever, or so we were told.

Here’s how Carole Cadwalladr, who along with Channel 4 broke much of this story, described the impact of Cambridge Analytica in The Observer in 2017: “A motivated US billionaire — Mercer and his chief ideologue, Bannon — helped to bring about the biggest constitutional change to Britain in a century ... If we let this referendum result stand, we are giving it our implicit consent.” The headline called it “The great British Brexit robbery”.

It seemed the scandal of the century — until last week. After a three-year investigation, Elizabeth Denham, Britain’s information commissioner, released her report on the improper handling of data by SCL and Cambridge Analytica. 

“On examination,” Denham told a parliamentary committee, “the methods that SCL were using were, in the main, well-recognised processes using commonly available technology.”...even SCL employees expressed “scepticism ... as to the accuracy or the reliability of the processing being undertaken”. They weren’t the only ones. Reporters who worked on the story at The Guardian privately expressed deep scepticism and felt it was being foisted upon them by senior editors....Denham found: “No further evidence to change my earlier view that SCL/CA were not involved in the EU referendum campaign in the UK.”... the ICO report found no “additional evidence of Russian involvement”.

 Much like the connected Russiagate scandal in America, for appalled and defeated liberals this unlikely narrative became an explanatory crutch. It allowed them to argue that these heinous events occurred not because a majority of the British or American population genuinely wanted what Trump or Boris Johnson were selling, but because they were duped by a cabal of billionaires, cunning populist operatives and, of course, Russians....Instead of seeing Nix and his cronies for what they were — snake-oil salesmen in Savile Row suits, late-stage public-schoolboys flogging their last bankable asset, overconfidence — we blamed them for the downfall of liberalism.

There was a real scandal here. Facebook played fast and loose with private data, allowing hacks and chancers to seize information they had no right to access. The tech behemoth was slow and sloppy in protecting users and its website is a spigot of dangerous nonsense that needs wholesale reform....But Trump and Brexit? The explanations for these enduring phenomena will not be found with the meretricious Cambridge Analytica. They lie where they always have: among our friends, neighbours and compatriots.

Now compare to the Observer editorial on the same issue (see lots of earlier pages on this blog)  

This newspaper’s exposé of the exploitation of private data has been vindicated

Last week, Britain’s information commissioner, Elizabeth Denham, announced she had wrapped up a long investigation into the use of personal data in political campaigning in a letter to parliament that warned of “systemic vulnerabilities in our democratic systems”. The letter confirmed that Cambridge Analytica had exploited Facebook data and said that, as investigators closed in on the company, it drew up plans to take its data offshore to avoid scrutiny....reporting on this topic, led by Pulitzer-nominated Carole Cadwalladr in the Observer, transformed the way that people around the world understood the value of their personal data and their relationships with social media giants.

One report claimed that the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) had “[dispelled] many of the accusations put forward by whistleblowers and digital rights campaigners”, listing concerns about Russian interference in Brexit and interference in the 2016 presidential election. Yet the ICO confirmed that CA and its partner companies held on to parts of the Facebook data until at least 2017 and used it for political campaigning. “It is suspected” that those campaigns included the 2016 US presidential election, the ICO’s letter notes.

A devastating Channel 4 report claimed recently that Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign worked with a team from Cambridge Analytica and used data to target black voters for suppression through ads on Facebook.

Other reports focused on the ICO’s confirmation of its earlier conclusion that CA was not actively involved in the Brexit referendum, while inexplicably ignoring its findings about the Canadian data company AggregateIQ (AIQ), which did work on the winning Vote Leave campaign and was described by whistleblowers as an unofficial “department” of the scandal-hit firm...[ICO] noted no “additional evidence of Russian involvement” in material on the CA servers it seized; it stretches [our Remainer] credulity to present that as a full investigation into potential Russian influence on Brexit.

Critics of Cadwalladr’s reporting argue that “Cambridge Analytica’s main data-related crime was overselling its own capabilities rather than actually hacking democracy”. Others have resorted to trolling and personal attacks, often laced with misogyny. Yet her exposure of Cambridge Analytica prompted political and judicial inquiries on both sides of the Atlantic and permanently altered public understanding of data abuse.

The ICO report confirmed massive mishandling of private data and its exploitation for political campaigning. The Observer is proud of its role in the exposure of these abuses.

If it is possible to summarise the agreed content:
  1. Facebook did misuse private data and some of it was used by lobby groups
  2. CLA, Cambrige Analytica and AggregateIQ made all sorts of claims about their abilities to influence elections, continued to make them, and were believed by various campaigning outfits 
  3. There is no evidence that they actually had an effect though, anymore than did lots of other campaigns using social media or old-fashioned paper and print like the Gru and the Observer did, so the claimed sting of the whole exercise was crap
  4. There are 'suspicions' which remain in the ICO Report. Some may remain to be investigated further,  by the NCA.
  5.  C Cadwalladr won prizes, or was nominated for some
  6. The Observer/Guardian and C4 cannot let it lie. If it has to drop claims about Brexit, it can still persist with claims about Trump which still somehow justifies what it said about Brexit. Some claims remain uninvestigated (especially those made by the companies themselves) which is a further suspicious sign for the Observer in compensatory "We should be told!" mode.
  7. We do need to keep an eye on dodgy campaigning companies

 


Friday 9 October 2020

Metaphors we love #94 -- the slippery slope

Stark warnings of doom here:

The government’s Brexit strategy is in danger of driving the UK down a “very slippery slope” towards “dictatorship” or “tyranny”, according to a former president of the supreme court.

Addressing an online meeting of lawyers, Lord Neuberger on Wednesday evening condemned the internal market bill, which enables the government to breach international law and exempts some of its powers from legal challenge....“The right of litigants to go to court to protect their rights and ensure that the government complies with its legal obligation is fundamental to any system … You could be going down a very slippery slope.”

Good job the courts are so open to anyone to protect their rights. I often use them. There is a whole panel of no doubt entirely dispassionate and non-partisan upholders of the law:

The hastily assembled online panel opposing the bill, organised by the International Bar Association, included Lord Neuberger, the former home secretary and Conservative party leader Michael Howard, the former attorney general Dominic Grieve QC, the SNP justice spokesperson Joanna Cherry QC, Helena Kennedy QC and Jessica Simor QC [apparently 'one of the country's leading specialists in public/regulatory, EU and human rights law']
Meanwhile, more evidence of Brexiteer racism, but with some mixed effects. Classic headline:

Two-thirds of British voters think EU nationals should not have free movement

The fascists! Followed by  the proper version:

Two-thirds of voters believe that EU nationals should have to apply to come to Britain rather than enjoy free movement, a new survey has shown.

Then some bits that must puzzle the Grud:

Most voters also appear to back the principle of treating migrants the same irrespective of their country of origin.

As for attitudes generally:

[The survey] shows a near even split on the impact of Brexit, with 51% believing the economy will be worse off as a result of leaving the EU and the same proportion saying they think the EU has undermined Britain’s ability to make its own laws.
Not really a split over the same issues then? Never mind -- the figures suit the Graun worldview of a split country. And what do the Scots think, I wonder?


 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/07/two-thirds-of-british-voters-think-eu-nationals-should-not-have-free-movement

Wednesday 7 October 2020

Infantile civil servants cost megabucks

Shocking news about those beneftitting from Brexit

Brexit drives government consultancy fees to £450m in three years 
A little bit of rowback just below:
Deloitte, the professional services firm, was the biggest winner, earning fees of £147m from public funds in 2019-20, compared with £40m two years earlier, amid a bonanza related in large part to Brexit [my emphasis]

day rates for management consultants working in the public sector range from about £1,000 for junior consultants to about £3,500 for partners....
last week the minister in charge of curbing Whitehall spending, Theodore Agnew, wrote a letter to senior civil servants saying the civil service had become “infantilised” by an “unacceptable” reliance on expensive management consultants.

 A bit of 'revolving doors' shock:

Many senior civil servants or ministers work for consultancy firms at some stage in their career, so there are often strong personal links or relationships between staff on both sides.

What job did O Robbins do after leaving the Civil Service? 

It seems to me to be a daming indictment of civil servants infantilised by decades of subservience to EC rules, and given their notorious Remain stance, perhaps paying for more independent advice was necessary?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/06/brexit-drives-government-consultancy-fees-to-450m-in-three-years

Tuesday 6 October 2020

Getting prepared for Brexit by telling us so

A few last attempts anticipating the 'Don't blame us, we told you so' line that will continue, doubtless for years. First:

NHS faces drug shortages as Brexit stockpile used in Covid crisis

“What we were relying upon in Brexit was a supplies stockpile. I would suggest we have eaten into that stockpile because of Covid. We need to think about what the stockpiles are looking like.”...“The main supply routes for drugs have been through Europe, both in terms of red tape and logistics, as they’ve come from mainland Europe to the UK through ports. This could all change suddenly with a no-deal Brexit.”

What a strange argument. OK we would have been able to cope with Brexit after all because we stockpiled. But now we have Covid which has used up the same stockpile, without any new stockpiling. European supply routes will somehow all be closed if there is no deal.Therefore Brexit will be reponsible for drug shortages:

problems associated with Brexit could conjure a “perfect storm” of problems this winter that could undermine care, including flu, bad weather, workforce shortages, a resurgence of Covid and an epidemic of burnout among staff.

But of those, Brexit just must be the major one. Note the weaselly 'could conjure'. By way of 'balance':

The Department of Health and Social Care declined to say if any of the drugs in the Brexit stockpile have already been used....A DHSC spokesperson said : “We hold a range of stockpiles for a variety of medicines, including crucial treatments used to treat Covid-19 patients to help ensure there is uninterrupted supply.

Then

No-deal Brexit risks violence in Northern Ireland, MPs warn MI5

Why? Because a long stream of conditional statements, if all interpreted in the negative direction, might provide accurate predictions of doom:

MI5 cannot afford to cut resources devoted to countering terrorism in Northern Ireland because of the risk of a rise in violence in the event of a hard or no-deal Brexit, parliament’s intelligence and security committee (ISC) has warned.

Hilariously 'the agency’s full response was redacted. “I think we can be reasonably confident,” it began, before being cut off for security reasons.'

Not for the first time, I am very grateful to Briefings for Britain's refutations of many of these silly stories:  This for example:

On Friday the BBC headline news included an item entitled: Shoppers could pay more after no-deal Brexit.

The story was planted by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) who said that tariffs would add £3.1bn a year to the cost of importing food and drink unless the UK and the EU can strike a free trade agreement. This was a lesson in propaganda: using value rather than volume statistics; assuming the imported goods basket would remain unchanged; and the implication that some extreme percentage increases were a typical example. Towards the end of the article, the BBC admitted that this would only amount to an annual increase of £112 per household or just over £2 per week. However, the more I investigate this story, the more I believe that even this amount is questionable and that could is definitely the operative word in the BBC’s title.

This review of scary reports by economists, or this 'rebuttal' of a BBC story about threats to the car industry

 



Sunday 4 October 2020

Maybe it does all make a difference to the price of fish

Hints of late splits in the EC/European Community, reported even by the Graun. What on earth has come over them -- a dose of  news values?
Buoyed by support for idea from Angela Merkel, PM hopes to overcome French opposition
To a deal on fishing, that is. 
Angela Merkel, on Friday... described the fisheries deal struck by Britain with Norway this week as a “constructive indicator”....“I don’t think that’s a bad message at all for us, I think it is rather one that shows that one can find ways to come to an agreement,” Merkel said of the agreement between London and Oslo.
That just leaves the French:
Macron has infuriated other EU capitals by insisting that Brussels takes a tough negotiating position on fisheries in favour of the status quo under which France is a major beneficiary....A number of EU representatives in Brussels have privately counselled that a deal with the UK should not be jeopardised over fishing rights given its small economic value, prompting the French ambassador to describe such comments as “unacceptable” in one meeting.

 

 


Friday 2 October 2020

Now it's the EC versus member states

Further tit for tat here yesterday
The EU has launched legal action against the UK after Boris Johnson failed to respond to Brussels’ demand that he drop legislation that would overwrite the withdrawal agreement and break international law.
 
What wild happen if we lose?
The commission’s letter is the start of a lengthy process that could end up in the European court of justice. The EU court in Luxembourg could impose huge daily fines for continued breaches....The UK agreed to be bound by decisions of the court on cases that began before the end of the transition period on 31 December, and for four years after that point.
Interesting bit of background:
The infringement procedure is a common tool used by the commission against member states. Last year there were 800 open cases. Germany had 47 pending cases and France 34. Each procedure takes an average of 35 months to complete.