Latest on the silly games characterising the endgame in the Graun.
So the prime minister has spoken. And as a result, we have a standoff. While Boris Johnson demanded a “fundamental change of approach” from the EU, the 27 heads of state and government, for their part, on Friday called on the UK “to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible”.
What is clear is that a deal is not a matter of one side blinking first. Both will have to make concessions. The precise nature of such concessions will be a matter for the negotiators, but it is not beyond the wit of man to come up with solutions that ensure appropriate standards in the UK and prevent excessive subsidies, without the need for London to be explicitly bound by EU law and under the authority of the EU’s court.
The last one would be a major concession by the EC, of course, unless it is a hint of more KitKat turning on what might be meant by 'explicit' I should think even this Government is now thoroughly alert to Continental wiliness after claims that control over the seas did not mean ownership of the fish or that the EC had the right to disrate UK exports to NI.
Wonderful glosses here:
Certainly, the difference between a deal and a no-deal outcome is smaller now than it has been in the past. The withdrawal agreement signed last year resolves a number of the issues outstanding from UK membership, as well as the fraught question of the Irish border. And the trade deal being sought by the British government is significantly thinner than that negotiated by the previous incumbent of No 10.
What this means is the UK is better prepared for a no-deal and Covid-19 has changed the whole picture, reducing economic activity anyway, and maybe giving Johnsons some camouflage for any State intervention.The withdrawal agreement has actually been modifed by the recent controversial bill which has invalidated a major EC playing card. The trade deal is thinner because a lot of the stuff about EC regulations and internal markets has been junked. Incidentally, I assume no deal also means no hefty payment to the EU -- agreed it will be peanuts compared to the cost of Covid.
On which...
Even if [a deal] were signed, modelling by Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics suggests that the negative economic impact will, over time, be larger than that of the pandemic. Whatever the outcome of the next few weeks, Brexit will continue to cast a shadow over what the prime minister has said will be a “year of recovery and renewal”.
We can trust those forecasts 'over time', of course, as Covid also shows.
The author of the article, 'Anand Menon is director of The UK in a Changing Europe', so maybe big changes on the horizon for him next year?
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