The stakes are high (at first):
This election is all about Europe and our place in the world, nothing else, not a dry run for a general election. Results will have only one meaning: how many voted remain and how many voted leave? This will tell if all the opinion polls are right. Not one has shown a leave lead for more than two years, with remain solidly ahead. Will that be replicated on 23 May? [Surely common sense will prevail , but...] The number of seats won by any party will barely matter, compared with the crucial total of in/out votes. This is our second referendum by proxy....
If so, there is bad news. In the strategic arithmetic which will follow, Toynbee sees an obvious problem:
Look at the astounding YouGov poll today and take in the first shocks – the Brexit party on 34%, Labour next closest at a meagre 16%, the Tories flattened to fifth with a near-death 10%, and a surge for Liberal Democrats and Greens. But never mind individual party tallies: all that matters is the number of pro-remain, anti-Brexit votes. And that hangs on which side Labour’s vote is counted.as things stand now the only ones counting as unequivocal remainers will be those cast for the “Bollocks to Brexit” Lib Dems, the Greens, Change UK, SNP and Plaid Cymru. As of now, Labour votes will not count in that tally – or worse, according to Gina Miller’s Remain United, Labour votes will be counted in the leave column. Voting Labour will not be a vote for remain – as the Brexiters will surely, and rightly, trumpet when results come in....the infuriating Barry Gardiner{is on hte Leave side,while ]... Labour’s estimable Jon Ashworth was trying vainly to hold the fort for remain.... Labour MP Ben Bradshaw says 12% of Labour’s 2017 vote is defecting to Brexit parties, 48% to remain parties.
Labour must come out for CV (Toynbee has given up trying to defend any distinction between this demand and one for Remain):
Labour can trounce the absurd claim this would be an “undemocratic betrayal” when it’s the Brexiters who dare not ask the people, fearing the dusty answer they would get next time.
Hang on though -- 'the people' are being asked already, are they not, in this 'second referendum by proxy', and it seems to be the Remainers who are fearful of a dusty answer. Whatever the analysis, there is always abuse to get off her chest:
The threat of Nigel Farage – a bully, someone who consorts with worldwide far rightists, racists, antisemites, brutes of every variety – is real and frightening. Sending his rogues’ gallery of the comic and the extreme to Brussels will be an embarrassment – but the headline that matters will be total votes cast for staying in Europe. If Labour is not solidly on the side of the remainers, to its shame its voters will be scooped up and counted among the Brexiters. That mortal error could ensure first-time defectors never return.
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