Friday, 3 April 2020

Some proper journalism at last -- from (some of ) the BBC

This piece from the BBC news site, puts it in perspective at last. For example:

The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body - because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported. But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death.It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else. 
Imperial College London modelling, used to inform government, has suggested 500,000 could have died by August in the UK if the virus was left to rip through the population....Now, it is hoped the lockdown will limit deaths to 20,000.... But that does not mean 480,000 lives are being saved - many will die whether or not they get the virus.... Every year, about 600,000 people in the UK die. And the frail and elderly are most at risk, just as they are if they have coronavirus.
During recent winters, there have been about 17,000 excess deaths from flu a year, Public Health England says....If coronavirus turns out to be no more deadly than flu, the lockdown could limit the number of excess deaths to under 1,400 - more than 12,000 fewer than would have happened under the previous strategy of slowing its spread, before the decision was taken to move to lockdown.
If it turns out to be five times more deadly than flu, the lockdown could limit coronavirus to 6,900 extra deaths - more than 60,000 fewer than under the previous strategy.

The lockdown, itself, however could cost lives.
Prof Robert Dinwall, from Nottingham Trent University, says "the collateral damage to society and the economy" could include:
  • mental health problems and suicides linked to self-isolation
  • heart problems from lack of activity
  • the impact on health from increased unemployment and reduced living standards
Others have also pointed to the health cost from steps such as delaying routine operations and cancer screening...Meanwhile, University of Bristol researchers say the benefit of a long-term lockdown in reducing premature deaths could be outweighed by the lost life expectancy from a prolonged economic dip...And the tipping point, they say, is a 6.4% decline in the size of the economy - on a par with what happened following the 2008 financial crash...It would see a loss of three months of life on average across the population because of factors from declining living standards to poorer health care.
 Being treated like an adult. What a nice change. And by Aunty! 

Meanwhile,on Newsnight last night, K Wark was finally 'called out' in her turn by a former Cameron spokesperson for constantly criticising the Government against some ideal standard of perfect knowledge instead of an appreciation of real politics. He might have championed calculative politics against inversionary virtue-signalling as well. The population as a whole, he suggested,were far more realistic and understanding than journalists.


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