What's wrong with the Welsh?

Today's Observer editorial extends the dire warnings of Scotnat revolt issued in the Van Rumpoy story ( below). We have a connection with the Irish Question too, that the EC has discovered so belatedly and which, as even N Farage knows, works with borders perfectly well pragmatically already, even though there might be no official EC bureaucracy to  regulate it:

the impossible conundrum [in terms of EC bureaucracy that is] of what to do about the Irish border remains unresolved [why not carry on and do what we do now?] And Herman Van Rompuy, former president of the European council, warns in the paper today that a no-deal Brexit could potentially risk the unity of the United Kingdom [The Observer cares about this issue? Only the EU can preserve the integrity of the UK and not further split the UK along a north/south axis?].

So rebellious Scots and an Irish conundrum. Obviously, threats to the UK is  the symbolic theme of the week, and the Observer proposes some weak moral panic covering both Scots and Irish, or at least the Remainers among them-- but what about the Welsh? Isn't the EC and the Remainer lobby interested in them?

The rest of the editorial offers rather second-hand finger-wagging.

For every business that exports, there will be layer upon layer of additional bureaucracy.[addtional that is because the existing layer upon layer will have to be scrapped and replaced, but one layer cancels out another?]...These are the just some of the gritty realities [the link goes to a piece by N Sturgeon] that will together produce the £80bn annual price tag of a no-deal Brexit estimated by the Treasury. [The Guardian, even, actually cites the Treasury paper as offering 'highlighted Whitehall forecasts from earlier this year, suggesting the hit to economic growth if Britain left without a trade deal would force the Treasury to borrow an extra £80bn over the next decade.' £80bn over a decade, not annually, making Observer calculations out by a factor of 10x even with its own preferred figures! But all figures are right if they help make the case?].

Then there this:

In order to maintain supplies of food, energy and medicines, the government says it will have to shadow EU regulations. This is the first admission that – whether we leave without a deal or remain part of the single market – Britain will shift from rule-maker to rule-taker as a result of Brexit. And that’s before we try and independently forge trade deals with giants such as the US, which will insist on imposing its laxer regulations in areas such as food on British consumers.

So we have to take EC rules [exactly as before, it could be argued, but perhaps not for ever as before], but we will also have the power to make new rules -- but, of course, that is bad as well!

Then:

But a no-deal Brexit will create a huge increase in bureaucracy, [not net it won't?] and not just for businesses. Raab has said it would require up to 16,000 extra civil servants – half the number of staff employed by the European commission. [So we will no longer contribute to the pay of EC salaries but have to pay our own civil servants -- sounds like an ideal bit of job creation to me. It's only a dreadful problem if we are going to persist with Government austerity and job cutting.]

Politically:

the reality is that the EU is in a stronger position and can dictate the terms on which it would [accept a deal] .[So do we want to stay in an organization that just dictates terms to us?]...Raab implied the blame for any no-deal Brexit would lie with the EU. But the public won’t buy this: most voters say they’d blame the government for a bad deal...Populists such as Nigel Farage will be standing by to capitalise on it. [so the public might buy it after all?]'

So again, we seem to be in a nasty impasse. 'The EU' will dictate terms to May so she won't get Chequers accepted. But no deal will be disastrous. The public can be relied upon to blame May, but evil populists might persuuade them otherwise.

This seems to be another of those fascinating phases in which ideology seems to be unestablished, where there is much dithering and wringing of hands, where blame and revenge seem to be the main issues and solidifying the right and the good into a bloc is the main aim, rather than hectoring opponents into actually supporting something. All we can do is accept EU terms it seems -- and they don't want us to leave at all, nor could a Government just overturn the referendum.

My own  prediction is that the Guaridan/ Observer will be proposing more and more authoritarian solutions as we near the deadline. To recall an old phrase --scratch a liberal and find a fascist.