Friday 2 August 2019

Pots and kettles resume talks

Apparently, the Irish Government has been attacked in the popular press as incompetent and unwise in letting the Border be weaponised. Guardian support for all things Celtic and lack of awareness of the unintended consequences of endless moralising and lecturing has led to some sort of response:

The political fear is that this new breed of “Brexit Ultras” (Johnson’s cabinet with Nigel Farage’s Brexit party snapping at its heels) could deliberately pursue a no-deal EU exit at the expense of a volatile Irish peace.... Ireland, and the fragile peace process that has been built over the past 20 years, falls between [UK and EC positions]...That relations between London and Dublin are now strained is beyond dispute, though officials in Dublin insist that much of the noise is to be expected and aimed at a domestic UK audience rather than Ireland or the EU. [The problem is  Johnson insisting the removal of the backstop is a precondition for any deal, Varadkar adamant that the EU will not relent on the withdrawal agreement.
What seems to be a new Irish insight (in public at least) is the recognition at last that:
Nobody on the island [the writer of the piece is 'an award winning Irish journalist, author, broadcaster and motivational speaker'] is blind to the reality that in standing by the backstop in order to avoid a hard border, they could end up with one if the UK crashes out without a deal. Indeed, the Irish government has conceded, in its latest updated contingency action plan, that it will implement increased checks and procedures in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

So the options?

Last week Varadkar stated the obvious when he told the MacGill summer school that a hard Brexit would force communities in Northern Ireland to consider the possibility of a united Ireland. They already are. [But] the truth is that both communities in Northern Ireland – as well as citizens across the island of Ireland – are fearful of what a botched, rushed conversation about unification might yield. That fear is that the birth of a united Ireland would be accompanied by violence and upheaval....Unification without the support of unionists, whose traditions and identity must be protected as part of any shared future, cannot be pursued as a zero-sum game. Otherwise we risk repeating history: the Troubles in reverse.  [The first time this possibility has been acknowledged in the Grun to my knowledge]

So all the bluster, swagger and cosiness of the Irish/EC bonding has led to this after all?

Meanwhile, the Graun editorial is predictable:

There is no economic case for crashing out of the European Union. MPs must stop the government’s plans in their tracks 

But it explores a few ideological issues in a most amusing and un self-reflective way:

to the keenest leavers, Brexit has always been an article of belief rather a policy programme....In the end... a no-deal Brexit is an act of faith-based politics and not a rational choice.[And Remaining?]

The usual stuff on economic disaster is trotted out -- falling pound, lack of growth in investment, the Bank's prediction of a recession -- presumably as simple truths based entirely on rationality. There is a recognition that more 'political' scares have lost their force -- 'many like...[Johnson]... do not ultimately care about the Northern Ireland peace process, and are not bothered about the concerns of the devolved nations either.' Poor old Graun -- it embraces Unionism just as lots of people (especially in England) have developed compassion fatigue and posture cramp over the plight of the Celts and their romantic pursuits.

Finally, there is the usual misunderstanding of any sort of confrontational political tactics:

A rational policymaker would therefore be seeking ways of avoiding no-deal rather than feeding expectations that it will happen.  The Johnson government, though, has ramped up the rhetoric and pumped in another £2.1bn in public money, not least on its own propaganda...For a government to say it does not want something to happen because it would be so damaging and then to spend so much of its money and its political capital on the possibility that it will is a shameful strategy.

Ultimately, though, the Guardian takes a moral line. Politicians should just stop offering alternative arguments to Gruan tenets of faith:

Others [policies]  like the disgraceful relabelling of the Irish backstop as anti-democratic, when it is not, are lies designed to mislead the public.

Elsewhere, the Graun turns to freak show copy for the silly season:

Indian boy, seven, found with 526 teeth inside his mouth

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