Thursday, 10 October 2019

Toynbee declares war

In the Graun today:

This is war. That’s the ludicrous intended message of summoning parliament to sit on a Saturday, echoing the eve of battle in 1939.

Luckily, Johnson will lose:

He has just promised his 80 One Nation moderates that his manifesto will pledge a deal, with no deal only as a default. But there is no deal for him to sell, however much he blusters that the EU will yield to him once he is victorious. It won’t...In fear of Farage, watch Johnson follow Dominic Cummings’ lead, converting the Tories into a no-deal Brexit party. Do that and he faces instant schism, with walkouts not just by those 80 MPs but also propelling a large slice of his One Nation voters into the eager arms of the Liberal Democrats.

Against these no dealers, Jeremy Corbyn and his party are united and authentically passionate, in a way they haven’t been for years.  

But:

The danger is in splitting the remain vote. Everything depends on remainers and progressives voting tactically with rigid discipline in each of 150 target seats to keep Johnson out, opting for the best-chance Labour, Lib Dem, Green, SNP or Plaid Cymru candidate.[What about the Union, though?]

And Johnson will flake, MUST flake, as Remainer common sense finally triumphs:

it will be Brexit, Brexit, Brexit all the way. But on strategy and tactics their record so far is 100% failure. In a five-week, 24/7 media campaign, stuff happens. Unwelcome subjects spring out unexpectedly....Never underestimate Boris Johnson’s ability to crash and burn whenever forced to confront the real world, the EU or the entire electorate.


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