Tuesday 15 January 2019

Big vote today

The Grun splashes it's webpages with stuff urging us all to stay faithful to the Remain cause, but also still seems to be wobbling over its most preferred option -- the PV. Somewhat belatedly, the editorial urges restraint and debate:

If the prime minister ought to change tack, then so ought her opponents. If they are serious about pursuing a different strategy to that recommended by the prime minister, MPs must think not just of winning a Commons battle but also public opinion. To increase the chances of other potential outcomes, MPs have to change the optics over the Brexit debate. The public currently see the two major parties riven by dissent and offering little more than partisan pot shots at their opponents. It is hard to see in that context how voters will be happy to be told that they will have to vote again in another referendum on whether this country stays in or out of the EU because squabbling politicians have been unable to resolve the matter. Or for that matter be enthused about another general election that gets turned into a single-issue plebiscite. That is why there needs to be a change of tone in our politics: to lower the levels of conflict, cynicism and confrontation. What is required is space for consideration of evidence, meaningful debate and negotiation in good faith. Without it the probability of other potential outcomes from this Brexit process shrinks.

They still see hope in PV+ though, and offer the usual promises of reform:

There is also a need to understand that the drivers of the Brexit vote – stagnant wages, inequality and feelings of powerlessness – were not caused by the European Union. They will not be solved by leaving it. What will be needed is bold new policies that respond to these challenges. These will not be forthcoming if MPs descend in the coming weeks to intra-party bickering and power grabs. This newspaper has made the case before that once Mrs May loses her vote, her first act ought to be to ask the EU to allow an extension of the Brexit deadline. We need a real dialogue via a citizens’ assembly about where the country should go.  

The beloved P Toynbee doesn't seem to have got the message though. Here she is, banging on as loudly and vituperatively  as ever, amidst more and more gloom and despair. No chance of finding much in the way of rational, calm, positive reasons to Remain here:

Let no one think it will soon be over. This is only the end of the beginning, in a Brexit civil war that will last a generation...Start with no deal, the most lethal ending, described as “national suicide” by Dominic Grieve. No need to rehearse the irrefutable reasons why crashing out would be a crippling economic blow and turn us into a pariah state..The bright side of no deal would be revenge on the Raabs: the dire consequences would serve these idiots right and make them eat their words amid the mayhem. London’s Met police were advising extra security for shops to guard against no-deal panic buying. But the country doesn’t deserve punishment for Brextremist folly. Brexiters would only blame the fallout on the EU, the filthy frogs and bully krauts. No national healing would be found among the queues populated by our equivalent of the old Soviet babushkas carrying “maybe” bags for whatever might be available to buy.
 Would a Norway option be healing? It has a nice ring...Nicer Tories, such as Nicky Morgan and Nick Boles, back this compromise.  ..But the EU will refuse the same deal as Norway, while Norway, Lichtenstein and Iceland don’t want us big-footing their club. A Norwegian ambassador I met said, “Don’t do this.” Why not? For the same reasons the Brexiters give [interesting -- you mean there are reasons?] : “You pay in large sums, obey the European court of justice (ECJ) and all regulations without a voice at the top table. Why give up your rebate?” 
 Yes indeed, May’s plan sets us on a blindfold path where the only certainty is ending up with an immeasurably worse deal than we have now. It condemns us to be not just poorer but weaker, not part of the EU’s strong collective voice and at the mercy of others to decide on the great questions: climate change; controlling monster monopolies; coping with an overweening China, aggressive Putin and dangerous Trump..Raab, wooing his party, spells out the joys of a Singapore future of low tax, no tariffs, “robust competition” and no “clumsy state intervention which only makes matters worse”. That’s the Brexiter future, though only their more honest economic guru, Patrick Minford, admits this leap into total marketisation destroys British farming, manufacturing and much else.  ... People hoping this paralysed government would then tackle the pile-up of crises – social care, NHS, schools, universal credit, air pollution, prisons, rail, homelessness – forget that these are caused by the same administration’s austerity...Raab, wooing his party, spells out the joys of a Singapore future of low tax, no tariffs, “robust competition” and no “clumsy state intervention which only makes matters worse”. That’s the Brexiter future, though only their more honest economic guru, Patrick Minford, admits this leap into total marketisation destroys British farming, manufacturing and much else.
As a matter of interest, the Minford link points to a brief exchange between him and M Scott Cato ( 'Green party speaker on economy and finance and spokeswoman for EU relations'). Here are the rival headlines: 'Patrick Minford: Our economy will gain billions after Brexit'.  Scott Cato:'The idea that we can thrive alone is phony'. Toynbee seems to have lapsed a bit from her usual high standards in all the excitement and confused Minford with his critic.

Her conservatism is also apparent:


The EU will yet again be trying to negotiate with an out of control country, from where Brexiters still bellow insults across the Channel, as Britain still tears itself apart over what “real” Brexit means amid endless claims of betraying the “will of the people”. By then, what May calls “our precious union” will be cracking apart, Scotland and maybe Northern Ireland preferring the relative peace and prosperity of life inside the EU to the political hell on earth in what was once the United Kingdom.
There is also fear of the unwashed led by unscrupulously ambitious nobs

Before we do this terrible thing, the people should be asked if this is what they want. Yes, a referendum would be another hell of its own – we didn’t need Benedict Cumberbatch to remind us of the depths to which referendums sink [in the C4 play that got all the luvvies worried again]. People might still cleave to Brexit, but there is a growing chance voters will step back...Even that won’t be the end, I’m afraid. Even if remain wins, the noise will go on. The Tory party may split, as it should, with the Brexit axis ready to raise mayhem. Nigel Farage threatens a “people’s army”, claiming dangerously that “parliament is against the people”. Boris Johnson stirs conspiracy paranoia [!] by warning the “deep state” is blocking Brexit. Chris Grayling warns of no-Brexit unrest, near-as-dammit inciting riot [dear me! Grayling as a fiery demagogue at the head of urban rioters].

Poor Polly.

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