The prereferendumization of voting patterns

Ingenious argument by T Garton-Ash today in the Grudnia. If there are to be European elections, it is bad news for Remainers so far -- N Farage's Brexit Party seem to be ahead in the polls already. Change UK in particular seems to lag. Not to worry -- we will reinterpret the vote as a simple choice between Leave and Remain, throw in a few additional qualifications, and total up the votes for the different sides of the binary. That should produce a winner in Remain (I wouldn't bank on it, even then, of course)

Britain will have its second referendum – at the EU elections on 23 May 

This will take the form of elections to the European parliament, but in reality this will be a pre-referendum, or, if you like your neologisms ugly, a preferendum....If Labour is not clear enough, then turn to the Liberal Democrats, Change UK, the Green party, the Scottish National party or Plaid Cymru. At the end of the day, what will matter more than the precise allocation of seats is that we can say: “X million people voted for pro-European, pro-referendum parties, while only Y million voted for unambiguously pro-Brexit parties such as Ukip, Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party and the Conservatives.” In this vital, bottom-line reckoning, there is no such thing as a wasted vote....It’s a pity that the most unambiguously pro-European and pro-referendum parties have not had the time, or the shared political will, to make a single combined candidates’ list. [but we will insist this is a single-issue election as if they had]

The new Change UK party gathers some of the bravest, most independent-minded national parliamentarians in Britain (currently sitting as the Independent Group, aka Tiggers), and will probably field some of the most interesting candidates for the European parliament.That will fire up media and voter excitement [really?]  to counterbalance the brouhaha around Farage’s Brexit party 

Unfortunately, the d’Hondt system of PR used in Britain favours larger parties over smaller ones...There is still some room for tactical voting...the crucial thing is to focus less on the parties than on the shared cause. Forget the seats, look at the votes.  

[clutching at straws] Many moderate pro-Brexit voters will feel that it’s pointless to turn out, since we’re supposed to be leaving the EU. Against that, ardent Brexiteers and ardent Europeans will be fired up as never before....there are the more than 3 million citizens of other EU countries living in Britain. Even if you are on the electoral register, you have to fill in and return a form saying you want to vote here rather than in your home country. 

[Strangely for the Gurdian and its obsession with online dark arts] For all the fascination with Facebook, targeted advertising and digital influencing, seasoned campaigners tell me that the biggest difference in such elections is still made by people knocking on doors and old-fashioned paper direct-mail shots.

The BBC will have to do a lot better than the initial jeering of John Humphrys on the Today programme...Our great public service broadcaster’s seriousness and due impartiality is in question [quite unlike the Guardian of course] . Meanwhile, thousands of other journalists, here and across Europe, are just waiting to write the day-after story as “triumph for Farage’s Brexit party”.

So -- all we need is to insist that elections are really single-issue, whether based on any analysis or not, and ignore any issues on which the parties might differ (SNP as an alternative to Labour!). With any luck, voters will also vote according to whether the candidates are 'interesting'. Lots might not vote at all -- which will be entirely good in this case if they are Leavers. Tactical votes might help. EU -sponsored Proportional representation is not a good idea in this case.  The BBC should rally behind the cause, in the name of 'seriousness and due impartiality'.

If anyone was ever in doubt about the depth of commitment of liberals to UK Parliamentary democracy...