The director of the Centre for European Reform writes:
The mood in Brussels is pessimistic. Most of those closely involved in the Brexit talks think the likeliest outcome is for the UK to leave without a deal...There is not much faith that “indicative votes” among MPs will produce a coherent way forward. “We don’t see the transmission mechanism that forces the executive to bend to parliament’s will,” said one EU official. “We cannot negotiate with a parliament.”...Another source of Brussels’ pessimism is the apparent inability of British politicians – including Labour’s leaders – to recognise how much the EU cares about the European elections....Many governments would rather the UK left without a deal than breach treaty provisions on elections.
What is that fluttering of wings? Is it the Owl of Minerva?:
Those member states closest to the UK – Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France and above all Ireland – would take the biggest economic hit. And some EU leaders understand that no deal would damage the EU’s international standing...There are tensions between Germany and France. Angela Merkel fears the geopolitical consequences of an estrangement between the UK and the EU27; it would weaken the west just when it was facing severe challenges from illiberal forces in Russia, China and the US....Emmanuel Macron is focused on his European election battle against Marine Le Pen and fears that she will gain if Brexit lingers unresolved. He wants to demonstrate that leaving the EU carries significant costs.
There is also some tension between Brussels and Dublin, because the Irish government has not spelled out what would happen at their border with Northern Ireland in the event of no deal. According to one Brussels official: “If the Irish do not introduce checks, the French and others will insist on controls between the continent and Ireland.” However, both Dublin and the commission agree that the way around this difficulty is for the EU to refuse to talk to the British about measures to mitigate no deal unless they adopt something like the Irish backstop (in addition to paying the money they owe and protecting citizens’ rights).
So they now see some problems. But their mind-set remains as closed as ever:
Many senior figures worry that if the UK prevaricates or stays it will distract the EU from other pressing challenges, contaminate European politics with its weird Eurosceptic attitudes and block further integration....Key officials despair at the inability of many leading British commentators and politicians to learn about how the EU works or what it wants from the negotiations. For example, senior MPs such as Nicky Morgan and Damian Green have wasted everyone’s time by backing the “Malthouse compromise” – whereby the UK would reject the withdrawal agreement but ask for a three-year transition, to mitigate the worst effects of no deal – although it is clearly incompatible with the EU’s objectives.
No point negotiating at all then. The EU's objective was to not let the UK leave.Why didn't we just understand and support that? Now:
many other governments, and senior figures in the commission, are keen to excise the British cancer from the European body politic.Not very nice language for the Gurdnia, surely? As a Brexiteer, should I now feel angry, oppressed and vulnerable, unable to talk to anyone, my life on hold, staying in my room in tears?
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