Sunday 24 November 2019

Professorial remainer prays for floods as the Observer bangs on and on and on

A Rawnsley announces that Brexit still has a long way to go,so the slogan 'Get Brexit done' is misleading. Fancy that. Never heard that before. His argument takes a familiar form:
First decide that the Tory slogan means a promise to have the new arrangements up and running straight after the election. Then the more impassioned can denounce that as a lie and/or broken promise, or, in this case, as foolish ignorance:
It will be “done” only in a very limited sense if Mr Johnson is returned to Number 10 with the Conservative majority that he craves....It cannot be said often enough [!]  that this will not be the end of the Brexit saga. It will not even be the beginning of the end. It will be merely the end of the beginning...Those voters who are planning to pick the Tories in the belief that they will never have to hear about Brexit again are in for a disillusioning experience.
The argument depends,secondly, on there being really stupid voters  who can't work this out for themselves and need nice liberal people to explain it to them. In particular, sinister forces are at work behind the scenes, undetectable to the gullible public, turning statements into covers for that which will happen 'in effect':
The ultras want a bare bones free-trade deal with the EU, a “Canada-minus”. If Mr Johnson is returned with a slender majority, the ultras may take him hostage, just as they did poor old Theresa May [!]. The ultras will demand that Britain diverges from the EU as much as possible in pursuit of their vision of turning the UK into a Singapore in the North Sea.... very early in the life of a re-elected Conservative government, we would be back to ticking clocks, brinkmanship, showdowns and cliff edges, probably accompanied by a lot of angry cabinet rows about what kind of compromises and trade-offs are acceptable to achieve an agreement. And if there were no resolution by the end of 2020, Britain would once again be facing the calamitous prospect of crashing out of the EU with no deal.
Rawnsley gets a bit ultra Remain himself with this:
Labour has adopted the slogan “get Brexit sorted”, an imitative echo of the Tory mantra....The sort of deal Labour talks about involves a customs union and close alignment with the single market, so it would be softer than any Tory version of Brexit, but it would still be Brexit.
So who does that leave? Oh dear -- nobody:
a Lib Dem majority government would simply revoke withdrawal and keep Britain in the EU without any further reference to the people. This is clear. It is also fantastical
Rawnsley can only offer us the enticing possibility of:
another hung parliament... To function, a Labour minority government would be reliant on the grudging acquiescence of the Scottish National party or the Lib Dems or possibly both.
However, the Observer's own latest poll is bad news for such a minority government:
The Conservatives have taken a commanding 19-point lead over Labour with less than three weeks to go before voters head to the polls, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.
The Observer then has to reassure us,in a piece appearing just below the poll results, of the unreliability of polls! Happily, things are volatile, at least in London constituencies which voted Remain, which is all that counts:
This weekend’s survey of three marginals suggests that voting movements are likely to vary wildly – even in neighbouring seats which look similar....the poll models used to project local constituencies from detailed national surveys – they are known in the trade as “MRP” projections – produce very similar predictions for the two seats. But our actual polls yield very different figures
A few straws drift by, either in the wind or in the water, depending on your preference:
With tactical voting, Luciana Berger has a real chance of winning Finchley for the Lib Dems...Local factors such as the impact of candidates and the effectiveness of local campaigning make a difference – and that difference might be greater this time than in past elections. 
Luckily, there is also a professor of politics to cheer us up further in yet another piece:
We are halfway through the election campaign and the Conservatives lead Labour by [only] roughly 10-12 points [so ignore the latest Observer poll]... 
There is still bad news:  
[The Tory campaign] campaign has featured the usual smattering of gaffes, wobbles and awkward encounters with angry voters, but nothing serious enough to blow things off course (yet) [Prince Andrew currently has a stronger lead in gaffes]... Nigel Farage’s decision to stand down Brexit party candidates in Conservative-held seats has given Boris Johnson a headstart in the race to squeeze third-party support...The Conservatives have gained nearly three points in polling since the announcement...Johnson holds a massive lead over Jeremy Corbyn in favourability ratings and “best prime minister” questions...The public is also more focused on Brexit than they were in the last election...Remain voters are still split....Labour Leave voters are switching to the Conservatives in much larger numbers than Conservative Remain voters are going to Labour
But do not lose faith all ye who wish to Remain:
....there is still a long way to go. The same polls that give the Conservatives healthy leads also give them reasons to worry: more voters than ever before think they may change their minds before polling day, and record numbers say they are personally invested in who wins the election.
Then a few more straws:
ratings of the Conservative government are very negative, with particularly dismal scores on public services and immigration. The radical spending promises in last week’s Labour manifesto could still mobilise discontent with austerity on the one hand, while the radical cuts to immigration promised in the Brexit party “contract with the people” could yet attract voters angry at the Conservatives’ past failed pledges on migration control....the growing threat of a dominant Conservative majority could yet focus the minds of Remainers and tribally anti-Tory voters, and convince them to unite behind the Labour banner.
Getting a bit desperate now, and appealing to God and his mysterious Acts:
Events beyond the government’s control could also shake the campaign. The final weeks of the 2017 contest were overshadowed by terror attacks [I am sure we all wish earnestly for more of those] ...The Tory campaign has already been wrong-footed by flooding, and could be thrown off course again by another bout of extreme winter weather....The vagaries of the electoral system leave the Conservatives needing a lead of seven points or more to be confident of a majority, and it is majority or bust this time. A two or three-point swing to Labour would therefore be enough to put everything up for grabs once again....[and there is] the much clumsier Boris Johnson [in charge]




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