Friday, 14 June 2019

Arguments for the Irish backstop...the EC wants it

From an Irish commentator, 'Ireland’s ambassador to the UK from 2009-13' in the Graun today. In the course of rebuking all the Tory leadership candidates 'with the exception of Rory Stewart', McDonagh lists 'half-a-dozen simple facts.':

First, the backstop is an essential element in preserving the balances of the Good Friday agreement. It is not a tactic....Second, our European partners designed the backstop because successive British and Irish governments have spent decades explaining to them the complex and subtle balances that brought peace to our island. They are aware that a majority of people in Northern Ireland support the backstop....Third, the EU will also continue to insist on the backstop because the single market, which the UK did more than anyone to shape, is based on laws that necessarily distinguish between countries that belong to it and those that don’t, and on rules that regulate the trade between them....Fourth, the backstop is an insurance policy. No more but also no less. It can be superseded by the future UK-EU relationship or replaced by alternative technological arrangements if and when identified....Fifth, the most important reality is that the EU will not renegotiate the backstop...A prime minister looking for new concessions would be no more credible than a new European commission seeking to double the calculation of what the UK owes to the EU. The deal is done.

So only the first is a real reason -- and it is, of course,debatable.The others amount to little more than saying the EC will not budge, 'the most important reality'. Apparently, they can't change their laws and regulations -- so they can't really deal with us at all? Of course the whole thing has been weaponised and is indeed a tactic, as other commentators have noted (some summarised in this blog). A majority in Northern Ireland (popn. 1.8million) might indeed support the backstop -- but there is a fair chance that the much bigger majority in the rest of the UK will not.

Meanwhile, in other interventions in the Tory leadership race:

EU says reneging on Brexit bill would damage UK economy 

Budget chief linked £39bn divorce bill to UK retaining beneficial relationship with bloc
there was no court Brussels could appeal to if the UK reneged on its debts, but that such a move by a new prime minister would damage Britain’s prospects...“Mrs May’s government accepted the payment of that amount [but not Parliament and it is not UK law] so we expect that, no matter which government will be our negotiating partner in the future. We expect them to accept that bill"..A spokesman for the French government suggested last week that reneging on the divorce bill would be tantamount to default on sovereign debt.

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