Theresa May could yet give us the ultimate parting gift: a Brexit referendum
if May wants revenge, she has the power to blow away all her obstructors, tormentors and detractors, all 80 European Research Groupers, all those who blocked her deal. Who knows the dark recesses of her mind, this locked-in woman incapable of communication? ... Parliament will prevent [no deal]... one way or another: the Speaker, John Bercow, guarantees it... in October, on the brink of no deal, when Labour calls a vote of no confidence to bring down the Johnson government, many more Tories will join the...if she would bring down a Tory government to save her country, why not take action sooner? She has the power. She could press the nuclear option and revoke article 50, ending the Brexit trauma at a stroke: quite a legacy....May can say with conviction that too much is being decided behind closed doors by a tiny Tory electorate: democracy demands the people, not the Tory party, decide what comes next. She would, the Tory rebels think, get it through parliament quite easily, forcing the winner of this leadership charade to give the people the final say.
Nigel Farage and the ERG leer threateningly as the no-deal abyss beckons, with the pandemonium of border blockages, shortages of fuel, food and medicines and an Irish border shutdown....[We don't have any shortages now, of course -- she means shortages that will affect the middle-class? . I have never seen anyone suggest a shutdown-- does she mean an EU-imposed border?]...Could Corbyn pivot at this point? Easily, say shadow cabinet remainers, because there is no chance for a Labour-negotiated Brexit now: the only place to be is strongly pro-Europe...Labour must ally with Greens, Lib Dems and independents, promising electoral reform so it never need be done again.
Think anything, do anything, say anything to keep your worldview intact -- there is no better demonstration of the power of ideology. A sort of prelude to that state, strategic blurring of factors, is found in the otherwise quite analytic P Mason:
Having said first that:
Those within the Labour hierarchy still resisting change suggest that, if it flips now to remain, the party will test the loyalty of the so-called Labour leave voters, who have stuck with the party on the grounds that it “respects the referendum result”. Meanwhile, because remain votes pile up in big cities, even if it claws many remainers back, that’s not enough to compensate in the crucial marginal seats.[my emphasis] ..I have to admit this risk is real.
Mason then chases Parliamentary unicorns:
But let’s consider the alternatives. If the incoming Tory leader tries, yet again, to put the old withdrawal agreement to parliament before 31 October, and if Labour was prepared to offer a free vote to MPs such as Caroline Flint, Gareth Snell and Lisa Nandy, a softish Brexit might be achieved, and two-party politics (in England at least) might reappear.
And then goes into full simplistic propagandist mode:
But the most vital task is to reframe Labour’s offer to voters in leave-supporting areas. Polling shows that the most salient issue for these voters, after Brexit, is the NHS, followed closely by the economy and immigration...Framing a no-deal Brexit as a threat to the future of state-funded healthcare should be easy, since President Trump, in one brainless soundbite, provided ammunition that will haunt the Tories at election time. Whether it’s Hunt, Gove or Johnson, the blunt question – will you rule out American ownership of our NHS hospitals after Brexit? – could be a killer one.
How disingenuous is that? US Companies are already owning bits of NHS along with other companies, of course. The whole Trump issue turned on him blurting out that everything will be up for negotiation in a trade deal, which is routine, and does not mean he will get what he wants. The EU has signed TTAP which also permits US companies to bid for NHS services.
On the economy, the catastrophes at Ford Bridgend, British Steel in Scunthorpe and Honda Swindon should be made the centrepiece of an argument that only Labour, by halting the slide to no deal, can save what’s left of British industry.
By defying the global demise in the car business? Subsidising internal combustion engines?
realigning Labour [at the level of propaganda] to the priorities of the progressive majority of British voters is obligatory....We have only months to prevent the permanent fragmentation of politics. Labour is not only susceptible to its middle-class vote bleeding to the Lib Dems, but its left and youthful vote switching to the Greens....We have to give progressive voters a reason to come back to Labour...
So its cynical realpolitik after all? Will anyone be persuaded?
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