Wednesday 26 June 2019

No really bad news on the economy.

The Graun has kept up a series of monthly reviews of key economic indicators to chart the economic damage done by the Referendum vote and the prospect of Brexit. The problem is the data have not been as damning as hoped, requiring a bit of backing and filling. However,that only makes the task of isolating the specific effects of Brexit more difficult. As today's example shows, other factors affecting economic activity include the economic policies of other governments and the EC,  the beliefs and guesses of managers, the weather, and the uncertainty over Brexit as much as the decision to leave itself. Today's is no exception:

The rising likelihood of no-deal Brexit has dragged down the pound on the foreign exchanges over the past month, as the prospect of a no-deal-focused Boris Johnson as prime minister becomes more likely. Sterling had fallen sharply to less than $1.26 against the US dollar and to about €1.12 against the euro. However, the US Federal Reserve coming closer to being forced into cutting interest rates amid fears over a slowing US economy has dampened the strength of the dollar in the past week. This has helped to inflate the value of the pound. The outgoing head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, also suggested that the eurozone requires more economic stimulus, which has sapped the strength of the euro.
However: 

Stock markets surge amid stimulus talk

Back to the body text:

UK inflation fell for the first time in four months, dropping back down to the target set by the government for consumer prices inflation of 2%,  ...After ballooning as companies rushed to import goods to avoid Brexit disruption, the UK’s trade deficit – the shortfall between imports and exports – narrowed to £2.7bn in April from £6.1bn in March...Surveys of business activity used as early warning signals for the British economy by the Bank of England and the Treasury suggested that UK economic growth remained weak last month....The IHS Markit/Cips services purchasing managers rose to a three-month high of 51 from 50.4 in April, following a rise in domestic orders. A figure above 50 indicates growth...After months of employers appearing to shrug off Brexit concerns, jobs growth slowed in the three months to April. Employment in Britain increased by 32,000 to reach a record high of 32.75m, according to the ONS, [but] significantly down on the 99,000 jobs added to the workforce in March....An unseasonably cold May prompted a sharp decline in summer clothing sales last month, raising fears over the strength of the economy as consumers reined in their spending....Falling corporation tax receipts [connected to Brexit?] damaged the health of the public finances in May, which in turn fueled a rise in government borrowing....The Brexit uncertainty serving as a brake on the housing market appeared to ease last month, as a survey of chartered surveyors showed that prices picked up on relief that the UK hadn’t crashed out of the EU without a deal this spring. 

After another shouty subheading, recycling some'news':

And another thing we’ve learned this month … Brexit stockpiling set to fuel economic slowdown

There is this:

After fuelling an upswing in economic growth earlier this year, the stockpiling rush ahead of the original Brexit deadline is poised to drag on the economy over coming months. UK firms face renewed risks around how to plan for no deal after the delay until the autumn

It's been a while since I did any Economics, but stockpiling can 'drag on the economy' if we consider sales of stocks of raw materials, but stimulate the economy in other ways at the production end (eg if the cost of buying new stocks increases). There are also storage and other costs of stockpiling , it is true. I want to see the argument, but after years of partisan banging on and on, I no longer trust the Grudian to offer me one.

 

 

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