Friday, 7 June 2019

Nothing to see in Peterborough -- move on

The pre-vote coverage in the Remainer media of the by-election has been muted to say the least, apart from a Graun attempt to rubbish the Brexit Party candidate with a story about some of his tacky investments. Everywhere else -- tactful silence, fearing a Brexit Party win and putting their fingers in their ears.The D-Day celebrations also helped immensely, of course -- no problems with prioritising that.

When the result appeared it seems to have been quiet relief all round, in the Graun at least. Labour had defeated the Brexit Party after all, by 683 votes (but Peterborough is notoriously marginal), Few attempts to read the runes and discover 'common sense' either.

Corbyn is quoted:

“This result shows that in spite of the divisions and deadlock over Brexit, when it comes to a vote on the issues that directly affect people’s lives, Labour’s case for real change has strong support across the country....Greene said the Brexit party had made a significant breakthrough, despite not winning. “We have shaken up British politics with none of the data that is necessary to win a parliamentary election,” he said....Stewart Jackson, the former Conservative MP for Peterborough, said the Tories suffered because of the failings of the parliamentary party. “There has been no leader and Brexit policy has been a shambles. Once we deliver Brexit, and get a new leader in place, I think this seat will be back in contention,” he said. [Libs and Greens (who finished 4th and 5th on pretty low votes) apparently had no comment)].

The Graun tries to see the silver lining:


The result is a setback for Farage’s fledgling party, which argues for a no-deal departure from Europe...Labour was seeking victory in a seat where 60% of people voted to leave the EU.

However:
The victory will help Corbyn in his fight with critics within the party who have tried to persuade the Labour leader to change course over Brexit.  ...the party chair Ian Lavery, have argued that Labour will be decimated in parts of northern England and Wales if it attempts to run another referendum.

Elsewhere in the Grudian, different views:

Labour ultimately won because the rightwing vote was split. ...Taken together, Brexit and Tory party votes amounted to 50% of the electorate ...Lisa Forbes  [Labour]  secured first place on 10,484 votes with 31% of the vote, down 17 points from its surprise win in the 2017 general election. The elections expert John Curtice said it was the lowest winning share of a vote in a byelection since 1945.

Other factors might include:

the strength of the Labour party machine as mitigation for another failure [Farage's view] by a Farage-led party in a parliamentary election....Certainly, Corbyn’s party was helped by a classic Labour ground game. As many as 500 volunteers were engaged in getting out the vote and had been canvassing for several months after the previous MP, Fiona Onasanya, was convicted of lying over a speeding offence.

And some broader implications:

Labour’s leadership will be also pleased that voters, faced with a stark left-right choice in a key seat, did not desert in material numbers to the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats....Paul Bristow, the Tory candidate, secured 7,243 (21%) of the vote, a plunge of 25 percentage points – hardly a surprise after the party’s dismal fifth place European election result. There could be no clearer example that failing to deliver Brexit could let Corbyn into Downing Street, as a string of leadership candidates observed.

Not much elaborate spinning here then, claiming emotional victories or overall wins for all anti-Brexit parties --yet.


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