Tuesday 11 September 2018

Apathy Party for the People's Will?

Signs of returning calm combined with sinister intent in Guardian columnist R Behr's piece today. 
   
The remainers’ biggest problem? Voters have switched off 

Behr cites a month old poll, in the Sun of all places. 'The participants were selected for readiness to switch between leave and remain positions.', which sounds rather dubious.Even a large minority of Remainers apparently just want to get on with it.
Disengagement is the biggest obstacle to the cause of reversing Brexit. Now unrepentant remainers also come across as cranks, banging on about Europe in ways that cause agnostic eyes to glaze over.
The good soldier Schweiks:
recall the 2016 campaign as a time of anxiety, even trauma. They resented being forced to choose between options they felt ill-equipped to evaluate, and are in no hurry to relive the experience. Few see Brexit as an imminent personal threat. It is either something settled in the past or whose meaning will be revealed in the far future.
Behr still holds out some hope from other poll findings that support for the 'People's Vote' is rising, citing polls commissioned by People's Vote [!]. Of course, debate in Parliament and in the media is still prominent:
But that is a Westminster show and most people haven’t been watching. They will only tune in when there is a deal. Then Downing Street has one powerful argument: back this offer and Brexit is done; you don’t need to read the small print (which is boring), you just need to know that this is our chance to move on. This is closure.
All pretty sensible, although there is always much to debate about what produces the apprent apathy and inertia -- disinterest or shy Leaving? You would think at least that the analysis might lead Behr to regret the acres of newsprint he and fellow Graun journalists have used in banging on and on [and P Toynbee still does in the same issue -- see blog above]. But hope always triumphs over analysis for Remainers:
That is where those running the campaign for a People’s Vote see their window. They anticipate a moment where three streams flow together: the public has re-engaged with Brexit because there is a deal; MPs say it is a bad deal; no one has a better idea. Giving the people the option to call the whole thing off then looks not only feasible, but unavoidable...That is only a route map to keeping EU membership in play, not a strategy for winning the ensuing argument.
And what might comprise the ensuing argument?
The remain flame has been sustained by a coalition of pro-European idealists, [still a mystery to me -- idealist about what exactly?] who see themselves holding the line against a xenophobic putsch [ after a Referendum?], and managerial pragmatists, who lament a reckless act of economic and strategic self-sabotage...[And what about Leavers?]. But remainers have not got noticeably better at marshalling the facts on their side for mass persuasion....Remainers have spent a lot of energy arguing with people who believe in Brexit, whose passion for it mirrors their hatred, because those are the only people who can be bothered to argue back. The moment is approaching when they will meet a tougher challenge: that sea of people beyond Westminster who neither love nor hate the EU, who had no strong feelings about membership before they were asked in 2016 and have none now, except perhaps a yearning to get the question out of their lives.
What might be suitable arguments to use in 'mass persuasion'? The Graun still seems to have no clue. Behr suggests instead a kind of dark politicial art, a political version of Project Fear probably straight out of the EC Handbook: there might be some mileage in delay and resistance to Chequers. Instead of the much-feared 'crashing out', negotiation will restart:
If Brexit starts to look like a gruelling odyssey, dragging on for years, with real costs now and long into the future, the case for calling it off can be made – and won.
Slightly more sinisterly:
And what it will all come down to in the end is a contest between two gut propositions that have very little to do with the EU. For leave: just get on with it. For remain: please just make it stop.
Leading to -- please find a strong person who will make the trains run on time? A strong person who will stop all the petty bickering and directly intuit the People's Will without even the need for any People's Vote?

 

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