How to get a People's Vote

It is rare to find any actual politics in the banging on and on for a PV. I suspect a PV has symbolic connotations as well as being an outlet for desperation among those who cannot accept Brexit. Perhaps they consciously wish the EC to offer a poor deal first (see blog below).  It has always been difficult to make it look like a serious political possibility, though. So this Guardina article caught my interest,written by one Hugo Dixon, 'chair of InFacts and one of the founders of the People’s Vote campaign'.

There are 7 likely scenarios, Dixon claims, and he presents them in an authoritative list:

1. MPs amend a motion backing a deal, 2. MPs reject deal,3. MPs amend legislation 4. May backs people’s vote on her deal 5. MPs say no to “no deal”6. May backs referendum on “no deal” 7. Snap election

It is readily apparent there are not really 7 options, but that 4 of them depend on some majority of MPs suddenly deciding to agree on steps leading to a PV, including all those in the Labour Party. For option 1, for example:

Labour would have to back a people’s vote. It is edging in the right direction. About 20 Tory MPs would also need to break ranks. So far there are fewer than 10 – including people such as Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry. But by the time the crunch vote happens, perhaps in the run-up to Christmas, their ranks could swell. 

Options 4 and 6 depend on May's support. The only hope there is that:

she used to be equally clear that there wouldn’t be a new election – and she called one last year. So she has form when it comes to U-turns. What’s more, it is not clear what better options the prime minister would have in such a situation. She doesn’t want to crash out of the EU without a deal, despite threatening to do so.

Dixon is optimistic about the splits:

After all, the number of fanatic Tory MPs who are genuinely happy to crash out of the EU may be only about 30...[May] may prefer to get the people to share responsibility for doing anything so crazy. 

It is all a bit weak and hopeful. What seems to drive it is not so much solid analysis as belief that opponents are crazy, fanatical, 'hopping mad' ,while 'what is on offer isn’t nearly as good as the deal we have got.'

As usual, proposals are really ideological, in the sense that they are designed to encourage and consolidate the Remainer hopefuls.