Wednesday 5 September 2018

Good news is bad news

Typically contorted argument form the Guardian today.Naturally, it chose a headline to help it bang on and on:

UK services sector struggling to find workers before Brexit

Apparently, there is a risk of a labour shortage which is affecting plans to expand. This seems partly down to the 'falling numbers of skilled applicants as Britain prepares to leave the EU.' This results from 'a record annual decline in migrants coming from the EU'. 

This is actually a bit disingenuous though because there is still a net surplus in EU migration although it is smaller than before. The latest ONS Migration Statistics Quarterly Report says
'EU net migration was at its lowest level since 2012 but continues to add to the UK population, with around 90,000 more EU citizens coming to the UK than leaving in the year ending March 2018.'
Dodgy 'facts' aside,The Guardian cannot make up its mind about whether this is a good or bad thing overall, however:
While labour shortages could drive up wages by increasing the bargaining power of workers, observers are growing increasingly concerned for future economic growth...tightness in labour market conditions had constrained employment growth. The figures follow a drop in the UK unemployment rate to 4% in the three months to June – its lowest level since the winter of 1974-75 – further reducing the number of people available to work.
So ending a low wage regime based on labour imported from the EU may be bad for future economic growth based on that wage regime. But who benefited from that sort of growth? The Guardian cannot take sides, of course, or even admit that some people could actually now benefit from Brexit except for ignorant racists
Jeremy Thomson-Cook, the chief economist at WorldFirst [said] “Another day, another survey showing Brexit uncertainty weighing on a part of the UK economy,”, 
but, despite the awful uncertainty:
'The IHS Markit/Cips purchasing managers’ index, which is closely watched by the Bank of England for early warning signs from the economy, increased to 54.3 in August from 53.5 a month earlier, beating all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists. A reading above 50 represents economic growth.'
In more dithering and mealy-mouthing:
optimism for the year ahead had dropped to the lowest level since March. [but] Growth in new work accelerated moderately last month, which will be welcome news for the economy, although it remained weaker than average for the past two years.
To round it off:
Despite the mounting concern over Brexit, the reading from the PMI points towards economic growth of around 0.4% in the current quarter, which would match the UK’s growth rate in April-June, and beat some City forecasts...The reading also followed better news for the economy from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which recorded a 23.1% jump in car sales in August from the same month a year earlier.

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