Stick and carrot

How might more people be persuaded to support a People's Vote? The Observer offers the usual alternatives  First, they might like to feel encouraged to think they are about to be supported by Labour in huge grass roots movement:a

The vast majority of Labour members are pro-European and in favour of reform of their party. Two years ago Corbyn pledged to empower them, in the glow of his second leadership victory. In Liverpool this week he will be under intense pressure to begin to deliver on that promise.

In a lead article, the Deputy Leader, T Watson says:

Labour must be ready to throw its full support behind another referendum on Brexit, its deputy leader Tom Watson says today, as a new poll shows 86% of party members want the British people to be given a final say on the UK’s future relationship with Europe.

Members are one thing but voters another .There have been YouGov polls for PV suggesting that Labour voters are also turning to Remain, as earlier blogs have  reported, but another report suggests some complications. The research by the Fabian Society might not be very accurate (although there is some debate about whether actual past voting behaviour is a better predictor than questions about future preferences:

First, we created seven groupings of parliamentary constituencies which reflected key components of Labour’s support base. We then analysed historical results in each of these clusters of seats to draw conclusions about how Labour’s support has changed. The Fabian Society then spent a ‘day in the life’ of six Labour voters, conducted throughout Autumn 2017.

According to the Observer, this research also revealed a

 “growing hostility” between Labour’s old and new core voters, creating a tension at the heart of the party, which has been riven by internal strife over its direction since 2015...The report warns that the tensions are so acute and unresolved that they risk costing the party the next election....Senior figures are concerned that enthusiastic support for a soft Brexit or a second referendum, demanded by many of its supporters, could alienate some working-class communities that have continued to back it.

In the most working class seats (mostly held by Labour), there has been  'a swing to the Conservatives of 3.6 percentage points since 2005.', 'but also 'a swing to Labour of 9.7 percentage points since 2005.' in urban seats,in this case in 'middle London'.

Meanwhile, back at Project Fear:

Theresa May is being warned by cabinet colleagues that a shift towards a harder Brexit will hasten the break-up of the UK, amid a renewed attempt by Brexiters to secure a clean split from the European Union.

This is a terrible prospect for those who uphold the sovereignty of the UK by wanting to merge it in an undemocratic EU, and is likened to 'a diplomatic calamity on the scale of the Suez crisis'. This analogy is provided by a 'major Tory donor', apparently. As usual though it all turns on some substantial 'ifs'. If the deal enshrines a border with NI, NI will be left '“in the departure lounge from the UK”. Cabinet sources are also warning that such a move would reignite the debate about Scotland’s place in the UK and further unravel the union.'

Given that May has repeatedly said she would never support a border with NI, the size of the if remains substantial,but any port in a storm to manage the difficulty of overturning a referendum by pretending something new is on offer: '“Nobody voted Brexit to break up the UK,” one minister said.'

Meanwhile, the Guardian/Observer continues to ignore or sideline any rival news. Even the C4 News had an item on the formation of a new campaigning group LeaveMeansLeave, headed by D Davis, N Farage and K Hoey (Labour). There was a substantial rally in Bolton, and C4 News showed the queues to attend. They tried to make the whole thing into a joke with N Farage as the main jester, the same technique applied to B Johnson. All the Observer could mange ,however, was one paragraph:

On Saturday, Nigel Farage and David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, both took part in a rally in Bolton calling for May to “chuck Chequers”. Davis said: “If you think you can bully this country, you really should read some history books.”

The Observer also flies a kite in the form of an article advocating membership of EFTA/EEA as a last desperate way out. A fourth option on the People's Vote form?