Then there is a whole list of scares:
Several major UK firms have warned of the risks from tougher border controls, including the retail chain Next, and carmakers such as Honda and Jaguar Land Rover who rely on thousands of parts arriving from the EU each day...JLR has cut staff working hours, while Honda has said a no-deal Brexit could add 60,000 extra pieces of paperwork for imports and exports to the UK while costing the firm tens of millions of pounds....“It’s such a potential car crash,” said John Glen, economist at CIPS, adding: “Common sense has got to prevail. We need to have a two-year transition period and to get something sorted out during that. The idea of day-one no-deal is just crazy.”... Economists have warned tougher border controls, import tariffs and other barriers to trade in the event of no-deal Brexit would have severe consequences for the economy, with one consultancy estimating the cost at around £1bn per year ....Researchers at Imperial College London estimate just two extra minutes of checks could more than triple the existing queues at ports, potentially leading to motorway tailbacks in Kent up to 29 miles long.
The penultimate link points to a report by a 'Europe-wide' consultancy group, writing in 2017, in the period of shock and horror after the Referendum when the Remainers just could not bel-eeeve it. One Project Fear warrior cites another and thus 'the facts' get established by repetition.
Experienced readers will note the weasels,of course -- 'potential car crash', the crazy 'day-one no deal' with no transition and presumably no preparation either, the erection of Brexit as the sole cause for things like the JLR short working (customer rejection of diesel had no effect on sales?). The CEO of Next is not concerned that he will have to shut down, as even the Graun noted: 'Next is well-prepared for this eventuality and we have all the administrative, legal and IT framework in place to ensure that we are able to carry on running the business as we do now.' The Imperial College London estimate is just unbelievable too -- do not traffic jams frequently cause delays of more than two extra minutes? Could lorries not reschedule their trips, and maybe set out 2 minutes earlier anyway? The GRaun itself reminds us that delays are not entirely unknown:
There are precedents for disruption, including Operation Stack on the M20, which forced trucks to a standstill in 2015 amid tunnel fires and industrial action in Calais. Typically used for a few days each year, it had a lengthier impact three years ago when 7,000 trucks were stranded, taking 36 hours to work their way through...Some food products did not make it to market because they went off in the queue, while others arrived so late that there were late penalties. Rolls-Royce was forced to delay its production line when goods did not arrive in time.
These were unexpected delays probably, and pretty thorough deep disruption beyond customs checks. Expected delays can be met in the same way ordinary motorists meet them -- leave earlier or deliver later. Can the Chartered Institute really not think of any simple solutions?
I want to just think about some of the claims that just in time production could not cope. Why not just advance your orders by a week? Do companies literally leave orders to the last minute? As for the burden of extra paperwork -- is that a daily burden?
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